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Blue & Gold Illustrated Assistant Editor Wes Morgan Breaking Down The BCS National Championship Blue & Gold Illustrated Staff Writer Dan Murphy Blue & Gold Illustrated Football Recruiting Editor Jason Sapp Blue & Gold Illustrated Senior Editor Lou Somogyi Notre Dame MVP: Tight end Tyler Eifert X-Factor: Opponents averaged 22.44 yards per kickoff return and 7.3 yards per punt return against Notre Dame in the regular season. The Irish managed 20.04 yards per kickoff return and 2.44 yards on Davonte' Neal's 18 returns, which ranked 115th nationally. Irish head coach Brian Kelly all but conceded the return game during the year, knowing there wasn't enough time to turn that unit around and opting to focus on securing possession only. When asked what his plan was during the six-week break between the USC game and the title tilt with Alabama, he wouldn't go into detail but explained that there would be some personnel changes to make that area more productive. If the Irish somehow manage to get a boost from special teams, it could be the difference in a game between two evenly matched squads. Analysis: Neither Notre Dame nor Alabama piled up eye-popping yardage in 2012. The Fighting Irish weighed in at No. 49 nationally with 421.33 yards per game. The Crimson Tide was 39th with 439.08 yards per game. The difference is head coach Nick Saban's team was 15th in the country when it came to making drives count. Alabama scored 41 touchdowns on 57 trips to the red zone. The Irish came away with only 27 touchdowns on 58 trips inside opponents' 20yard line. In Notre Dame's 22-13 win at USC, it relied on five Kyle Brindza field goals to seal the deal. Three-pointers might not be enough against Alabama. Notre Dame MVP: Running back Theo Riddick X-Factor: Much ado has been made about the ability of Notre Dame's front seven to stop Alabama's relentless rushing attack, but don't sleep on the importance of a solid Irish pass rush either. If Notre Dame can keep junior quarterback AJ McCarron from getting comfortable and picking his spots, Brian Kelly's team will have a good chance of keeping the score low and following the winning formula that got them to the BCS National Championship Game. Notre Dame finished 15th in the nation with 2.83 sacks per game. Sophomore defensive end Stephon Tuitt and junior linebacker Prince Shembo, among others, kept opposing quarterbacks on the run all season. McCarron heads the most efficient passing attack in the country, but the vaunted Tide offensive line allows 1.77 sacks per game. That stat puts them in the middle of the Football Bowl Subdivision pack this season. Could it wind up being an Achilles' Heel in Miami? Analysis: No matter how well Notre Dame has performed on the big stage this season, nerves will still be a factor in the national title game. Alabama learned last year how to channel those early jitters into positive energy. Notre Dame will be able to keep pace with the Tide for much of the game, but if Nick Saban's team can get out to even a small head start while the Irish are getting settled in, it's not a group that's likely to surrender a lead. Notre Dame MVP: Quarterback Everett Golson X-Factor: While senior running back Cierre Wood looked to be at the forefront of the Irish backfield entering the 2012 football season, the twogame suspension to start the season put classmate and roommate Theo Riddick in position to take advantage of the opportunity. Wood, who looks to be leaning toward entering the NFL Draft, remained in a complementary role throughout the season, but is in position to potentially end his college career on a high note in the BCS National Championship Game. Analysis: Alabama has been here before, but the 2012 Fighting Irish have shown time and time again that they are actually capable of playing better away from home and in big-time games than they have performed in their own stadium. This game presents an opportunity to do so yet again, and temporary blindness from the bright lights on the big stage isn't expected. Sophomore quarterback Everett Golson was playing his best football by the end of the regular season by not only limiting mistakes and developing a stronger sense of keeping the play alive with his arm and legs, but primarily by not turning the ball over. He has an opportunity to do to Alabama's defense what Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel did in leading his team to a 29-24 victory over the Crimson Tide. The Irish front seven will have a great challenge in the trenches, and the secondary's experience will be tested. Notre Dame MVP: Linebacker Manti Te'o X-Factor: In six road games this year totaling 360 minutes of action, Notre Dame has trailed a total of 48 seconds — 3‑0 at Oklahoma prior to Cierre Wood's 62-yard touchdown run. In other words, the Fighting Irish have been able to dictate tempo, rhythm and game situations virtually all year against their opposition. They have not allowed a touchdown in the first quarter (85-9 scoring advantage) and often seized control in the opening minutes, a la opening drives for scores at Michigan State and USC. The Fighting Irish consistently proved their mental toughness and concentration on the task at hand in 2012 and it has been beyond reproach. However, without a sharp start or finding themselves in a hole against a team of Alabama's caliber, it might be rougher sledding for the Irish. Analysis: The offensive and defensive stats are quite similar between the two teams, making it virtually a wash. That's not uncommon when No. 1 faces No. 2. Thus, these type of showdowns between football titans generally come down to three tipping points: turnovers, special teams and red zone efficiency. If Notre Dame can win at least two of those three categories (it might need all three), then we like its chances of claiming the program's first national title in 24 years. This might have to be like resurrected Oklahoma's 13-2 win over defending national champ Florida State in 2000. Prediction: Alabama 28, Notre Dame 20 Prediction: Alabama 23, Notre Dame 20 Prediction: Notre Dame 21, Alabama 20 Prediction: Notre Dame 13, Alabama 9 ✦ Page 5