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Northwestern, 29-19. The Spartans didn't even really try to run the ball between the tackles, as Heyward and Jefferson com- bined to total only 27 yards on 11 carries. The overreliance on quarterback Brian Lewerke created another set of problems, as the Spartans had trouble keeping North- western pass rushers out of the backfield. Lewerke was sacked twice and pressured repeatedly. Twice, the Wildcats nearly dropped him in the end zone for a game- clinching safety as Michigan State tried to put together a late comeback. The problems up front have created a co- nundrum for Dantonio, because a formida- ble rushing attack is supposed to be the cornerstone of his offense. "The formula for success here has been: If you can run it 40 times – I don't care if you get 120 yards or 130 yards or 140 yards or 240 – if you can run it 40 times, you've got a pretty good chance to win," he said. "That's been [the reason for] our success." But the Spartans haven't been able to run the ball consistently, and that's forced the coaching staff to lean more heavily on Lewerke than it would surely prefer. The 6- foot-3, 220-pound junior remains one of the Big Ten's top passers, ranking second in the league with an average of 265.6 yards per game. Against Northwestern, he com- pleted 31 of 51 passes for 329 yards. But his productivity hasn't been sufficient to off- set a running game that is ranked 13th in the Big Ten with an average of 123 yards per game. "If you throw it 60 times, there's a good chance you might have 300 yards, as evi- denced [by the game against] Northwest- ern," Dantonio said. "But we didn't win the game. So you have to be able to run the football to some degree, especially when the yardage gets short or when you're in situations that demand that you've got to be able to run the ball. So we've got to fig- ure out a way to do that, and that's our challenge." Their other challenge will be to get their season turned around in one of the Big Ten's most hostile environments. Although the Spartans won at Penn State in 2010 and '14, their last visit in 2016 was a disap- pointment, as the Nittany Lions romped, 45-12. "That's a great atmosphere over there," Dantonio said. "We've gone over there and we've won before. It's fun. If you play at home all the time, you play away all the time, those type of things could become redundant a little bit. I think when you go away and play in a different environment, it takes on a different mentality for your football team. It's a little bit of an us- against-the-world-type mentality. It will serve us well. Got to go over and play well. We'll have our opportunities." Dantonio said that after a loss like the one Michigan State suffered last week against Northwestern, he worries nearly as much about players' emotions as he does their physical health. "I'm concerned about out mental health when we come off a tough loss," he said. "My focus has always been on big-picture things, so I ask myself, where are they in terms of away from foot- ball? How are they doing?" To get them in the right frame of mind, he has told his players to approach this week's game as if it really is a battle of unbeatens. "My message to our players is: Play like it. Play like we're 5-0," he said. "Keep the same mindset as we go forward." O C T O B E R   1 0 ,   2 0 1 8 B L U E W H I T E O N L I N E . C O M 3 NATE BAUER 4-1 | Between Michigan State's loss to Northwestern a week ago, Penn State's strong, but ultimately unsuccessful, performance two weeks ago against Ohio State, and especially dating back to that bizarre, monsoon-soaked game that derailed the Nittany Lions' playoff aspirations a year ago, this has all the makings of a trap pick. Meaning, from a payback angle, plus these two teams' showings this season, Penn State might be 24 points better than Sparty this time around. Of course, those elements will have far less to do with Saturday's outcome than this simple question: Are the Spartans capable of scoring at the pace Penn State typically produces? All evidence so far this sea- son points to a resounding no, leading me to believe a competitive first half will turn strongly in the Lions' favor late. | PENN STATE 38, MICHIGAN STATE 23 PHIL GROSZ 5-0 | At the beginning of the season, some were picking Michigan State with its 19 returning starters on offense and defense to win the Big Ten East Division title. The Spartans have gotten off to a slow start because a rash of injuries, mostly on offense. Bell cow running back L.J. Scott has only been able to play in two games so far, and the Spartans' offensive line has been decimated by injuries. Michigan State enters Saturday's game with a totally one-dimensional offense. Its running game ranks 13th in the Big Ten, and while its pass offense is fourth, QB Brian Lewerke has been sacked 12 times. The only way Michigan State will win this game is if its No. 1-rated run defense keeps Penn State from scoring 30 or more points. But that isn't going to happen, because the Spartans have the worst pass defense in the Big Ten, having allowed 305.2 yards per game through the air. Penn State's balanced offense will total over 400 yards, and Trace McSorley could throw for more than 300 yards. | PENN STATE 38, MICHIGAN STATE 14 MATT HERB 5-0 | The Spartans are surely better than they looked at the end of last week's game against Northwestern, a game in which they had difficulty just keeping Brian Lewerke from being sacked in his own end zone. But the challenge this week is a lot big- ger. Penn State may be coming off a gut-punch loss to Ohio State, but it's also coming off a bye week and will be drawing plenty of energy from what figures to be a sellout home- coming crowd. The Lions can still have a great season if they take care of business in the games in which they match up well with their opponent. This is one of those games, and I believe they will do just that. | PENN STATE 34, MICHIGAN STATE 24 TIM OWEN 4-1 | The Nittany Lions will be facing the nation's stingiest rush defense on Saturday, so this is going to have to be Trace McSorley's game to win. If the defense can keep Michigan State below its average of 27 points per game, I think it can be done, but it won't be easy. | PENN STATE 31, MICHIGAN STATE 24 RYAN SNYDER 5-0 | Michigan State already has two losses on the season and I expect that number to grow on Saturday, as the Nittany Lions will have plenty of motivation fol- lowing not only the loss against Ohio State, but also last year's loss in East Lansing. I think Penn State rolls this weekend. | PENN STATE 47, MICHIGAN STATE 23 S T A F F P R E D I C T I O N S

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