Blue & Gold Illustrated: 2019 Notre Dame Football Preview
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32 ✦ BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED 2019 FOOTBALL PREVIEW the Tigers faced 12 top-40 scoring defenses and averaged 31.6 points in those contests. Clemson averaged 34.1 points in eight matchups against top-25 scoring defenses. In Alabama's two recent championship campaigns, the Tide played 16 top-40 scoring defenses and logged a 31.1-point clip in those games. Saban's squad averaged 30.3 points in 11 matchups against top-25 scoring defenses. Combining Explosiveness And Efficiency During Notre Dame's two best scor- ing seasons (2017 and 2015) it had its two most explosive offenses. However it also lacked ideal efficiency, especially in the run game. The Irish were too reliant on big plays, which is why it became bogged down against the better defenses on the schedule. According to the S&P+ ratings, the 2017 offense ranked 10th nationally in explosive plays, higher than any championship team from 2015-18. The problem is those champi- onship teams ranked between first and 18th in efficiency, while Notre Dame in 2017 checked in at just 49th in the category. When quarterback Ian Book was inserted into the lineup, the attack became far more efficient — but it lacked the explosiveness of the 2017 offense that was led by Brandon Wimbush. Clemson's title-winning team in 2018 ranked 16th in explosiveness and eighth in efficiency. Offensive coordinator Chip Long knows that his offense must combine those attributes. "We need to take the explosiveness of '17 with the efficiency of '18 and how we were on third downs," Long said during the spring. "We have to be explosive. We had two plays over 50 yards last year and we went to the College Football Playoff. … The year before we averaged that in a series." Scoring requires an aptitude for the "chunk plays," but also the methodical ability to move the chains. Clemson converted 46 percent of its third-down chances in 2018 and 50.2 percent in 2016, winning the national championship both years. Ohio State converted 52 percent of its third downs during the 2014 title run. Notre Dame succeeded on third down 43.0 percent of the time in 2018, 43.8 percent in 2017 and 42.5 percent in 2015. A jump in efficiency will bump that number into the high 40s, which is the minimum for where the offense needs to be on third down. The Irish aren't there yet, but the good news is the combination of coaching, training and roster talent is as good as it has ever been dur- ing Kelly's tenure. Now it is about coalescing into championship-caliber production. That's why there is legitimate optimism that Notre Dame's 2019 offense can get to that level. Improved Quarterback Play Book brought efficiency to the offense last year, evidenced by his 68.15 percent completion rate and 8.4 yards per pass at- tempt. Only once during Kelly's tenure has Notre Dame had a quarterback surpass 8.4 yards per attempt (2015), although that sea- son the signal-caller — DeShone Kizer — completed "only" 62.9 percent of his passes. The next step for Book is combining the ability to efficiently get the ball out to his playmakers and move the chains with more effectiveness throwing the ball down the field. Kizer averaged 13.7 yards per comple- tion in 2015, while Book averaged just 12.3 yards in 2018. Late this spring, Book had better success pushing the ball over the top of the defense during practice. "Vertically throwing the football down the field with accuracy," Kelly said of Book's spring improvements. "… Ball placement on back-shoulder throws and a little bit more air. We wanted more of a level, free type ball. We felt like his [throws] were flat last year. "He pushed the ball vertically [this spring] and a little bit more air for our guys to ad- just to the football. All the things he's been improving on, it's been a nice step for him." Yards After Catch Long also knows that his team needs more from its skill players after the catch. Notre Dame can't live on Book throwing the ball down the field all the time. The Irish running backs and wideouts need to do more damage after getting fed the ball. Offense Must Get Up To Speed Notre Dame has not been where it needs to be on offense to compete for championships, but it has come closer in recent seasons. Points Per Game Year Champion Runner-Up Notre Dame 2018 44.3 45.6 31.4 2017 37.1 35.4 34.2 2016 39.2 38.8 30.9 2015 35.1 38.5 34.2 2014 44.8 45.4 32.8 2013 51.6 39.5 27.2 2012 38.7 25.8* 25.8 2011 34.8 35.7 29.2 2010 41.2 47.0 26.3 Part of being an explosive scoring offense is combining efficiency and explosiveness, which is best viewed in yards per play. Yards Per Play Year Champion Runner-Up Notre Dame 2018 7.4 7.8 6.0 2017 6.6 6.7 6.4 2016 6.2 6.5 6.1 2015 5.9 6.4 7.0 2014 7.0 7.3 6.1 2013 7.7 6.9 6.1 2012 7.0 6.0* 6.0 2011 6.5 5.7 5.9 2010 7.4 6.8 5.5 * Notre Dame was the national runner-up in 2012 — Bryan Driskell Offensive coordinator Chip Long knows his offense needs to display more explosiveness in 2019. PHOTO BY ANGELA DRISKELL