Penn State Sports Magazine
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6 O C T O B E R 2 0 2 1 W W W . B L U E W H I T E O N L I N E . C O M T hose who play close attention to statistics in sports are likely fa- miliar with the idea of regression toward the mean. It's used when there are extreme data points in any statisti- cal context — points we would consider to be outliers. When a third baseman in Major League Baseball begins his season bat- ting .400 despite making solid contact only 25 percent of the time, it's likely he will regress toward the mean. Likewise, when a hockey forward scores only two goals in 20 games because he's scor- ing on 10 percent of his shots — when historically he's scored on 25 percent of his shots — it's likely the goals will begin to flow at some point. You get the idea. We began this column with a math lesson because, in a sense, Penn State's 16-10 victory over No. 12 Wisconsin to begin the season felt a lot like some ex- treme regression toward the mean. The same issues that plagued the Nittany Lions in a dismal 2020 season — a penchant for turnovers, an inabil- ity to capitalize on scoring opportuni- ties — hurt a Badgers team that moved the ball better than Penn State through four quarters but couldn't put up the points to make that advantage count. Let's begin with the obvious starting point: Wisconsin's turnovers. The Badgers really struggled to hold onto the football. Quarterback Gra- ham Mertz threw two interceptions in crunch time and had several issues exchanging the ball with his run- ning backs. One of those fumbles was pounced on by junior defensive end Nick Tarburton in the second quarter, giving the Nittany Lions three take- aways. Penn State's offense, by comparison, had no such problems. The Nittany Lions turned in just their fourth turn over-free game in Big Ten play since the start of the 2018 season. It was a distinct and welcome con- trast from last season's turnover- fueled debacle. So drastic were Penn State's turnover problems early last season — they gave it away 13 times in their first five games — that James Franklin and his staff clearly altered their offensive scheme to stop the bleeding as the season progressed. Penn State finished the year averag- ing nearly two giveaways per game. On defense, the Nittany Lions came up with only nine total takeaways in nine games. Those who study football statistics tend to regard turnovers as having a random quality, meaning that trends don't always carry over from season to season. The Lions may have been due for some regression toward the mean in that column of the stat sheet. "We won the turnover battle and we won the explosive play battle," Franklin said after the game. "At Penn State, we're like 97 percent on wins when we win those two stats. We talk about them all the time. I think we could have had a few more turnovers. We had a couple of dropped interceptions. And I think we could have had a few more ex- plosive plays as well, so we won those two battles. They're always significant. They're the two most important stats in football." Similarly, watching Wisconsin's of- fense fail to convert in the red zone was like revisiting Penn State's 2020 season. The Badgers accumulated 365 yards of total offense to Penn State's 297 but could not turn that yardage into points — largely because of red zone deficiencies. Wisconsin took the ball inside the Nittany Lions' 20-yard line four times and came away with points just once. A Mertz interception, a fumble and a blocked field goal by senior defensive end Arnold Ebiketie overshadowed Wisconsin's lone red zone triumph, a 3-yard touchdown run by tailback Chez Mellusi. The Nittany Lions weren't perfect here either, as Jordan Stout failed to convert on a short field goal in the third quarter. Still, they made good on their other two chances, and after ranking in college football's bottom quarter last season, it must have been a welcome change for Franklin and company to win a game because of the opposition's inability to execute in that part of the field. "This will be a huge psychological boost," Franklin said, putting his psy- chology degree to use. "When you can go on the road and protect a lead against that type of team and that type of offense, there's tre- mendous confidence that can come from that." Certainly, Penn State deserves some credit for making improvements in both of these areas. The Nittany Lions overhauled their offense. They empha- sized turnover generation more than they ever had in practice. The improve- ments, more than likely, were not an accident. But last season, by all accounts, was an outlier. If the adjustment toward normality continues, Penn State fans are in for an exciting fall. ■ O P I N I O N DAVID ECKERT davidecker t98@gmail.com Junior linebacker Brandon Smith (12) and sophomore cornerback Joey Porter Jr. played key roles in a defensive effort that held Wisconsin to one touchdown. PHOTO BY STEVE MANUEL Penn State's New Normal Resembles Its Old Normal JUDGMENT CALL