Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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4 NOV. 13, 2021 BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED W ith plenty of football still to play and the cannibalism ready to begin among the 25 teams in the initial 2021 College Foot- ball Playoff rankings, there wasn't any reason for all- out panic when Notre Dame checked in at No. 10, even if that ranking was two spots below its No. 8 spot in the Associated Press Top 25 and the odds are long for a Fight- ing Irish postseason push. The CFP checklist for Notre Dame started with holding serve at home last weekend and beating Navy as a three- touchdown favorite, then it moved down to winning at Virginia this weekend, and finally, capping off an 11-1 reg- ular season with victories over Georgia Tech and Stanford. Winning out is a must for the Irish, and that still may not be enough to get in, no secret there. As far as the dominoes beyond taking care of its own business, Notre Dame needs all or a hefty combination of Cincinnati, Oregon, Ohio State, Okla- homa and Wake Forest to lose sometime between games of last weekend and the rest of this season, and to have Wis- consin pile up enough wins to become champions of Big Ten. But this story isn't as much about finding an unlikely path for Notre Dame to make its way into CFP consideration — FiveThirtyEight.com gave the Irish only a 12 percent chance of making the four-team field after the first CFP rank- ings were released — as it is about illus- trating the preconceptions and flawed criteria that the 13-member CFP com- mittee used in settling on and situating its initial poll. Again, CFP rankings in early Novem- ber rarely mean much, and this selec- tion system will eventually sort itself out, presumably with some combina- tion of the usual candidates — Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State and Oklahoma — claiming all or most of the four spots. But for teams such as Notre Dame and Cincinnati that carry an equal or superior profile compared to some teams ranked above them, there's a feeling of helplessness in being at the mercy of a committee that has already demonstrated that its decisions will be made based more on yesteryear than the current year. "Eye test" and "momentum" and "improvement" are popular terms and key criteria the committee professes it will use throughout this process when measuring a program's playoff worth. So, with that in mind, why was Notre Dame — which had to replace its defen- sive coordinator and the nine players it put in the 2021 NFL Draft after last sea- son — still penalized in the initial CFP rankings for lackluster performances in early September during wins over Florida State and Toledo? Since then, the Irish showed more improvement than any team in the country while winning five of their next six games, three by double-digits over Wisconsin, USC and North Carolina — a trio of talented teams all ranked in the preseason AP poll. It's understood that Alabama, Geor- gia and Ohio State have the most talent on their rosters. But sometimes team qualities such as experience, chemis- try, leadership, smarts and camaraderie can overcome recruiting rankings and star power. Alabama has already lost this season to un- ranked, two-loss Texas A & M a n d s u r v ive d a two-point scare against a mediocre Florida team, yet the Crimson Tide were slotted No. 2 in the f i rs t C F P ra n k i n gs — ahead of four undefeated teams — and neatly po- sitioned for a seventh playoff invite in the last eight years, maybe even as a two-loss team. If the CFP commit- tee is basing its rankings on history and five-star recruits, then pencil in Al- abama, Georgia and Ohio State each preseason as the three playoff teams and let the rest of the FBS battle for the fourth spot. Again, even assuming that Notre Dame beats Navy and wins out from here, the odds for a CFP berth will still remain long for the Irish, even with multiple wins against the ACC, the Big Ten and the Pac-12 conferences. That's because until a more inclusive and expanded CFP format is adopted that rewards all conference champions and evaluates teams beyond the same short list of usual playoff candidates the committee gets stuck on each year, the odds remain long for any team outside of that preferred group to collect a play- off invite, and that's not right. Roster A may have more five-star players than Roster B. But in a season full of parity and upsets — more than 50 ranked teams were beaten this year, a single-season record — the commit- tee needs to take a broader view and realize that when choosing a CFP field, game results and noticeable improve- ment should matter more than histori- cal context. ✦ No. 10 Notre Dame and Desmond Ritter's No. 6 Cincinnati squad both are on the outside looking in based on the first College Football Playoff ranking released Nov. 2. PHOTO BY CHAD WEAVER Playoff Committee On Its Usual, Myopic Course UPON FURTHER REVIEW TODD D. BURLAGE Todd D. Burlage has been a writer for Blue & Gold Illustrated since July 2005. He can be reached at tburlage@blueandgold.com