Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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www.BLUEANDGOLD.com NOV. 27, 2021 35 GAME PREVIEW: STANFORD 1. Run Game Downturn Three Stanford running backs were Heisman runners-up between 2009 and 2017. Their av- erage rushing output was 314 carries, 2,002 yards, (6.8 yards per carry) and 18 touchdowns. Stanford had a 1,000-yard rusher every season except 2014 in that span, including six years with one who topped 1,500 yards. That dovetails into seven offensive line draft picks from 2010-17. Add it all up, and the Cardinal run-game op- eration had no inarguable superior — which makes its dramatic downturn even more con- founding. In three full seasons since 2017, Stanford's leading rusher has finished with fewer than 850 yards and averaged less than 5.0 yards per carry. This year's team ranked 112th in yards per rush (3.43) heading into its Nov. 20 game against Cal. The leading rusher, junior Nathaniel Peat, is averaging 5.5 yards per run, but on only 70 carries. Junior Austin Jones' team-high 88 carries have netted 315 yards – or 3.6 yards per rush. Offensive line play has unsurprisingly dipped. Stanford ranks 121st in opportunity rate (per- centage of carries where the line does its job, per Football Outsiders), 119th in stuff rate and 78th in power success rate (a measure of short-yardage effectiveness). Pass protection is a struggle as well. The Cardinal are 101st in sack rate. They have topped 100 rushing yards as a team only four times in 10 games. 2. Defensive Woes Stanford's defensive regression is nearly as startling as the run game's. The Cardinal posted four top-35 finishes in yards per play from 2010-15, including three straight years in the top 15. They also ranked in the top 35 in scoring defense every season from 2010-17. In each of the last three, though, they're 75th or lower in both categories. Stanford's 2021 unit might be the worst of head coach David Shaw's 11-year tenure. It is 95th in scoring (30.3 points per game) — the lowest ranking in the Shaw era — and 102nd in yards per play (6.1). Stanford entered its rivalry game against Cal having allowed 87 points over the last two games. The Cardinal is 120th in yards per carry al- lowed (5.44) and bottom 15 in sacks per game, tackles for loss per game and third down con- version rate. In the advanced stats metrics, they're 102nd in defensive SP+ and 75th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) defensive rankings. 3. A Quarterback Chasm In seven games with sophomore quarter- back Tanner McKee as the starter, Stanford averaged 27.4 points per game and 5.8 yards per play. Extrapolate those over the full 10 games played (through Nov. 13), and they'd rank 71st and 68th, respectively. Nothing im- pressive, but it's at least a pulse. Enough of one to put up 31 points in an overtime win over No. 3 Oregon. Without McKee, the pulse is barely detect- able. In two full games without him and two drives of the season opener before he played, Stanford had 21 possessions (excluding kneel- downs) and scored three touchdowns. Nine drives were three-and-outs. McKee missed Stanford's first two Novem- ber games due to injury. He was scheduled to return for the Nov. 20 rivalry matchup against Cal. He is averaging 7.8 yards per attempt with 14 touch- downs and five interceptions. It's worth noting that all five of his picks came against the two highest-ranked yards per play defenses he faced (Arizona State and Washington). — Patrick Engel Week 11 than Stanford (230.7). A Notre Dame team that has run the ball effectively in the second half of the season has to be licking its chops. Stan- ford has been brutally bad against oppo- nents' rushing attacks. There is no other way around it. The fewest rushing yards Stanford has allowed this season were the 100 Wash- ington State gained Oct. 16. USC was the only other team Stanford held to less than 200 rushing yards. Utah gained a staggering 441 on 9.59 yards per carry in its route of the Cardinal. The Utes also scored six touchdowns on the ground. Shaw called it a "terrible showing top to bottom." "We have 11 out there at a time," he said. "Strap it up and get out there and play. Defensively we have to have a lot of discussions on how to stop the run. All year it's been close. It's been close. Today wasn't close." On the other hand, Stanford actually has done a fine job at defending the pass. The Cardinal ranked No. 26 nationally in passing yards allowed per game (196.2) through Week 11. Junior cornerback Kyu Blu Kelly has nine passes defenses and two interceptions through eight games. Defensive backs Kendall Williamson and Jimmy Wyrick had six and five passes defended, respectively. Junior linebacker Levani Damuni led the team with 72 tackles through 10 games. Sacks haven't come easily for Stanford this season, but senior line- backer Gabe Reid has 8.5 tackles for loss through 10 games. The recipe for teams sticking with Notre Dame early in the year was putting graduate student quarterback Jack Coan on the ground. That's not Stanford's strong suit. And neither is stopping the run. Yes, the Cardinal have some stout cover guys in the secondary. But like with McKee likely returning to the lineup, it's going to take more than that for Stanford to keep this game close. It's probably going to take more cards than the Cardinal have in their hand. ✦ Junior Nathaniel Peat is Stanford's leading rusher, but has just 382 yards through 10 games. PHOTO BY BOB DREBIN/ISIPHOTOS.COM Three Things To Know About Stanford "Strap it up and get out there and play. Defensively we have to have a lot of discussions on how to stop the run." STANFORD HEAD COACH DAVID SHAW