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In the face of significant transfers before the season and the graduation of key personnel after it, O'Brien and his staff followed the on-field success with a 2013 recruiting class that featured the nation's No. 1 quarterback prospect, three other four-star recruits (as rated by Rivals.com) and a host of others who appear to have major upsides. Throw in the return of 1,000-yard rusher Zach Zwinak, Big Ten Receiver of the Year Allen Robinson and three tight ends with a combined 75 receptions, and the Nittany Lions appear to have many of the pieces they need in order to win football games. But if you were a gambler, and you were thinking about the chances of Penn State continuing its recent run of success, two questions would immediately occur: How likely is it, and would you bet on it? Because Penn State's recruiting is going so well, the chances that its top-level players will succeed remain high. In the past few months, the Lions have received verbal commitments of four additional four-star players, indicating that they are going to be able to maintain their recruiting momentum. But due to the reduction in scholarships – it can offer no more than 15 per year through 2017 – the talent gap between Penn State's firstand second-string players is going to be as big as it's ever been in the program's modern history. Granted, the apparent success of O'Brien's "run-on" program can help mitigate the challenges presented by the loss of nearly 25 percent of Penn State's scholarships. Maybe instead of having one bigtime career contributor like former quarterback Matt McGloin, the team will get contributions in different phases of the game, as higher-quality run-ons enroll during the next few years. But even then, the potential contributions of a few run-ons pale in comparison to the likelihood of success from highly recruited scholarship athletes. If everything goes in Penn State's favor, if all of the four- and five-star prospects pan out and have successful careers, if none of its players get seriously injured through the course of their careers at Penn State, and if several of the sleeper prospects come through, then yes, this program is still very capable of delivering great seasons between now and 2017, when the scholarship restrictions elapse. A smart gambler wouldn't bet on it, though. Any realistic projection for the coming seasons has to include the likelihood that some of the four- and five-star prospects won't have amazing careers, that some key players will get injured, and that not all of the sleeper picks will come through. With a softer nonconference schedule, it's still a good bet that Penn State will be able to win between five and seven games per season. What's more, the Big Ten has its share of lackluster programs, and they will afford this team an opportunity to burnish its conference record. Maybe if the ball bounces their way, the Lions will be able to have a nine- or 10-win season in the immediate future. (Bear in mind, however, that they have won 10 or more games in only three seasons since 2000.) Given the cumulative effect of the sanctions, the 2013 season is likely to be the last one in which Penn State football resembles its former self, at least for a while. The perilous situation at linebacker is a sign of things to come. If a Donovan Smith or Mike Hull or Adrian Amos or Deion Barnes falls prey to an injury this season or next, the dropoff is likely to be steep with the second-teamer on the field. But even though the odds aren't nearly as favorable as they were before the sanctions were handed down, with O'Brien and the program moving forward in unison, they are not insurmountable, either. An intelligent gambler would have to give them some serious I consideration. WEB SURVEY WHAT DO YOU PREDICT PENN STATE'S RECORD WILL BE IN 2013? I think they will go 8-4. The lack of vocal leadership within the ranks combined with an untested QB and thin defensive depth will prevent a doubledigit-win season. That being said, we will see a more polished, confident coaching staff in year two, and players like Akeel Lynch, Eugene Lewis and Jesse James will have breakout years. Should be a fun ride. Brazillm10 7-5. Weak schedule and first-team talent gives us seven wins. New QB and thin depth prevent us from reaching the eighth win. PSUChina Depth and injuries are the limiting agents in this equation. If we have no major injuries to key players, then 10-plus victories are likely, in my opinion. I say this because our starting 22 athletes are as good or better than anyone in the league. The tight ends are ridiculous. The wide receivers will be very good. Although the running backs are clearly dependent on the offensive line, I believe both will be very good. The QBs have talent and smarts, all of them. The top two have excellent arms. I believe that the aforementioned skill players will buy these QBs enough time in the first four or five games to allow them to absorb and get comfortable with their initial learning curve. I believe that by the final third of the season, these QBs will be a major force. Kicking will be improved. I also have confidence in these coaches. They have earned respect. The defense is good to very good, with the secondary and defensive ends being the strengths. Double-digit wins are reasonable with this scenario. However, if we have a rash of injuries at key positions, I believe that we will be fortunate to win five or six games. jimarnp 9-3. NFL-style coaching and talented returning athletes, especially on offense, come to the forefront. Expect the starting QB to perform well quickly due to coaching and raw talent. Howie'81 I'll say 8-4, but if the stars all line up, they could go 9-3. psuted 8-4. 3-1 out of conference and 5-3 in conference. Depth is an issue, but I think the biggest issue is how well our QBs learn and implement the

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