Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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BLUEGOLDONLINE.COM AUGUST 2024 53 I t's playoff or bust for Notre Dame football in 2024. Ideally for the Irish, they would host a first-round Col- lege Football Playoff matchup, win that and earn the op- portunity to play a quarter- final game at a neutral site. But making the 12-team field should be the bare minimum. Head coach Marcus Free- man has said that this might be his most talented team, complete with several defen- sive stars, a sneaky-good of- fensive skill group, two expe- rienced coordinators at the top of their craft and a dynamic transfer quarterback. Barring significant injuries, there's no reason Notre Dame should ex- perience a Gator or Sun Bowl- level holiday season again with this roster and this schedule. That last thing, though, is a blessing and a curse. The Irish will face one team (Florida State) ranked around ninth-12th in most preseason top-25 rankings. Another op- ponent (Texas A&M) can sit anywhere from 15th-25th. Two more (Louisville and USC) appear in the 20th-25th range in some lists but just miss the cut in others. Résumés consist of postseason rank- ings, not preseason ones. But on its sur- face, Notre Dame's schedule is not as strong at the top as it was last season. Depth is an issue, too. Georgia Tech is the top opponent outside of the top four at No. 54 in ESPN Football Power Index. This means that the Irish have a golden opportunity. Rarely has it been easier to win enough games to put themselves in playoff position. But it also means there's very little margin for error. There is precedent for a 10-2 team being left out of the New Year's Six Bowl field, which is essentially what the 12-team CFP group is. In 2023, Okla- homa won double-digit regular-season games but earned the No. 12 seed and a trip to the Alamo Bowl. No. 23 Liberty would have taken the Sooners' spot as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion. If we take this exercise one step fur- ther and imagine 2024 conferences ex- isted in 2023, No. 11 Ole Miss would have gotten the boot at 10-2 as well. Instead, a first-round bye would have gone to the Big 12 champion: No. 14 Arizona. The last time no 10-2 power-con- ference team would have missed the 12-team field was 2017, and it was 2016 with the remodeled conferences. Typically, the CFP Selection Com- mittee has considered quality wins the No. 1 factor in playoff positioning aside from record. Unless someone like Geor- gia Tech, Purdue or Virginia really sur- prises, Notre Dame has four chances for one of those. Would a 2-2 record in those games be enough? It depends on which ones the Irish win — a victory over Florida State would likely go a long way — but it's possible it would not. Compare Notre Dame's schedule to a slate like Michigan's. The Wolverines will go head-to-head with Texas, USC, Oregon and Ohio State. As of right now, that's three top-four teams and a fringe top-25 one. If Notre Dame and Michigan both end up 10-2, I have bad news for Irish fans regarding which would likely be the higher seed. This exercise can apply to most of the Big Ten and the So u t h ea s te r n Co n fe re n ce . The SEC is as deep a league as college football has ever seen. Eleven of its members are in the FPI top 25, as opposed to four from the Atlantic Coast Conference. History indicates there will be more 10-2 or better teams from the Big Ten and SEC than there are at-large playoff bids. Point differential is one fac- tor that could play in Notre Dame's favor, but quality wins matter more. The committee wants to see teams that have proven they can beat the best, which create better matchups and, of course, better ratings for ESPN. You can make all the arguments in your team's favor — Notre Dame is, de- spite what some pundits might tell you, still excellent for ratings — and most of them are bound to be valid. The 12-team playoff did not eliminate difficult "in or out" debates like Florida State ver- sus Alabama in 2023; it merely changed which teams will be involved. But the fact of the matter is losing two games would mean putting the Irish's fate in the hands of that committee. The obvious solution is to win 11 or 12 games. Twelve wins would secure the No. 5 seed and likely a chance to host a Group of Five team at Notre Dame Sta- dium, while 11 would still clinch a home playoff game. Winning 10 games, though, would be living in the gray area. The committee members left Florida State out, in part due to its quarterback's injury but also believing it would not have won as many games as it did in a stronger conference. They can do it again. ✦ Head coach Marcus Freeman believes the 2024 squad is his most talented team yet — but its margin for error will be razor thin. PHOTO BY CHAD WEAVER OFF THE DOME JACK SOBLE Staff writer Jack Soble has covered Notre Dame athletics for Blue & Gold Illustrated since August 2023. Contact him at Jack.Soble@on3.com. Two Losses May Be Leaving Too Much To Chance