Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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BLUEGOLDONLINE.COM NOV. 16, 2024 53 F rom the moment Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois, the path was clear. There was certainly plenty of noise at the time. The Irish dropped to No. 18 in the Associated Press poll. Some felt they should have dropped further. Some even went as far as to say a loss that bad should have removed Notre Dame from consideration altogether. Regard- less, the prevailing feeling around the country was that it was over for the Irish as a College Football Playoff team. It was all just noise. Starting Sept. 8, Notre Dame had two options. Option A: The Irish could show NIU was a sign of things to come and embark on an underwhelming cam- paign. Option B: The Irish could show NIU was an aberration and win the rest of their games. Nothing else mattered. It was never as complicated or difficult an evalua- tion as some pundits made it seem. An 11-1 Notre Dame team was always go- ing to make the College Football Play- off, although No. 14 Texas A&M's strong season and No. 22 Louisville's win over Clemson certainly helped. No. 13 SMU continuing to win is actually great for the Irish as well; the Mustangs have made it so the Cardinals do not have a bad loss. The CFP Selection Committee saw it that way, too, putting Notre Dame at No. 10 in their initial rankings. "Well, the logic was they opened the season with a great win against Texas A&M, also against No. 22 Louisville," se- lection committee chairman and Michi- gan athletics director Warde Manuel said. "Their performance against a Navy team that was ranked at the time — didn't have a loss — going into Navy and winning in a dominant fashion, we felt overcame what was a troubling loss to Northern Illinois. "I say troubling, because we all thought it was not the Notre Dame that we've seen and we've looked at." Basically, Notre Dame has done enough to prove it is not the team that showed up and lost to the Huskies. Its seven wins — two against ranked opponents and with an average margin of victory of 36.2 against unranked ones — have made it clear which Irish are the real Irish. Historically, the committee has re- warded quality wins more than it has punished bad losses. This committee might actually lean more toward the lat- ter than most, as evidenced by putting No. 2 Ohio State (beat No. 7 Penn State, lost to No. 1 Oregon) over No. 3 Georgia (beat No. 5 Texas, lost to No. 11 Alabama). Notre Dame was never going to com- pletely get a pass for NIU. But as long as it ran the table, the committee was always going to see that day as a one- off and treat the Irish as such. In the 12-team playoff era, you can absorb one loss like that — but only one — and still compete for a national championship. "They won six straight games since that loss, and Riley Leonard is really coming on, into that offense," Manuel said. "Not only passing, but actually running. A very good runner. Their defense is in the top 10. I mean, they're a very solid team." Now, all that's left to do is win some more. Notre Dame's remaining sched- ule, much like its previous schedule, is not difficult. The Irish will be favored against Florida State, Virginia, No. 25 Army and USC. Falling to the Semi- noles or Cavaliers would certainly spell doom for Notre Dame's CFP hopes. But even a "quality loss" to the ranked Black Knights or a Trojans team that the com- mittee will respect more than its 4-5 record would do the same. An 11-1 Notre Dame team can comfort- ably write off NIU as a mistake and breeze into the CFP. A 10-2 Notre Dame team has to compete with a bunch of other 10-2 teams, none of whom lost to NIU. "I'll continue to remind them that it's great, but that has no impact on our fu- ture," Irish head coach Marcus Freeman said about the rankings reveal. "We've got to make sure right now we take care of what's important." As long as it does just that, Notre Dame will make the CFP. And it looks good enough right now that maybe, just maybe, it can make some noise when it gets there. ✦ The improving play of quarterback Riley Leonard may be helping the standing of the Fighting Irish in the eyes of the College Football Playoff committee. PHOTO BY MICHAEL MILLER Path To Playoff Remains Clear: Just Win, Baby Staff writer Jack Soble has covered Notre Dame athletics for Blue & Gold Illustrated since August 2023. Contact him at Jack.Soble@on3.com. OFF THE DOME JACK SOBLE