Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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GAME PREVIEW: ARMY BLUEGOLDONLINE.COM NOV. 23, 2024 37 North Texas got its pick on a crossing route against Cover 3, when Daily didn't see a deep-zone de- fender ready to jump the route. However, when Daily has an open receiver down- field, he will hit him. Short and senior wideout Casey Reynolds are his favorite targets, with 11 re- ceptions each for 259 and 317 yards, respectively, and 3 touchdowns apiece. Army's pass game feeds off its run game; if Daily has to pass when the opposition knows he's pass- ing, he's in trouble. But as far as obvious passing situations go, the Black Knights barely see them. They are dead last in college football with 101 third-down attempts, and they're No. 2 in third- down conversion percentage at 53.47 percent. Third-and-long is virtually non-existent in this of- fense. Florida State found some success running on third-and-long against Notre Dame, and Army will probably want to explore that option because passing on the Irish is a fool's errand. Defensive coordinator Al Golden's unit has allowed 5.4 yards per attempt, which is fourth-best in the country through Week 11. Its passer rating against of 53.0 was second only to Texas, and its completion per- centage against of 48.4 was first. Oh, and the Irish are also the fourth-best team in the country at preventing passing plays of 20 yards or more. Advantage: Notre Dame NOTRE DAME RUNNING GAME VS. ARMY RUN DEFENSE Army is tied for the 14th-best rush efficiency defense at 3.24 yards per carry against, but here is where we need to talk about the Black Knights' schedule. They have faced two rushing offenses ranked in the top 50 nationally in yards per carry so far. Notre Dame is No. 5, at 6.0. To Army's credit, North Texas is No. 30 and the Mean Green couldn't get much going on the ground against them. But dig just a little under the surface, and you'll see some vulnerabilities. North Texas is weird in that it runs efficiently but doesn't run a lot, ranking in the bottom 10 nation- ally in rushing attempts. Against the Black Knights, the Mean Green rushed 17 times (not including a 3-yard sack) for 72 yards, good for 4.2 yards per carry. They just decided to pass 38 times, and that worked out poorly (more on that soon). I don't care that they give up the third-fewest yards per game in the nation; that is heavily in- fluenced by time of possession and trailing for all of 5:48 throughout the year. Many of Army's advanced metrics paint the Black Knights as a pedestrian run defense. Their stuff rate of 19.5 percent is 57th in the country. They also allow first downs on 28.3 percent of their run defense plays, which ranks 85th. Todd D. Burlage: Notre Dame 37, Army 14 For the first time since 1957 and only the fourth time in series history, Notre Dame and Army will meet as ranked opponents. Sitting at 9-0 for the first time in 28 years, the Black Knights firmly remain in the playoff hunt. As expected, Army leads the nation in rushing at 334.9 yards per game, and it's also averaging a robust 35.2 points a game. But somewhat surprisingly, it's been the Army defense that has also helped it stay undefeated. Only one opponent this season (East Carolina) has scored more than 14 points against a team that ranks first nationally in scoring defense at only 10.3 points allowed per game. Army's re- surgence has been one of the feel-good stories in college football this season. But given that the Black Knights haven't beaten the Irish in 15 tries and 66 years, this feel-good story takes a new turn at Yankee Stadium this weekend. Steve Downey: Notre Dame 26, Army 17 Army has been a great story this year but has yet to be really tested. The Black Knights' strength of schedule ranks 133rd out of 134 FBS teams per ESPN's Football Power Index and their best win to date was a 14-3 triumph at North Texas (5-4) Nov. 9. That's not to take away from what Army has accomplished, but rather to illustrate they haven't seen a team with the talent, speed, skill and depth that Notre Dame possesses. It won't be easy for the Irish, though. They caught a break when Navy put the ball on the ground with 5 unforced fumbles earlier this year. Army won't beat itself in a game in which pos- sessions will be at a premium. The Black Knights ranked first in the country with just 3 giveaways (2 lost fumbles, 1 interception) through Week 11. The bet here is that the Irish will control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, slow- ing down Army's nation-leading rushing attack just enough while grinding out a hard-fought win with their multi-pronged ground game. Kyle Kelly: Notre Dame 38, Army 10 Entering Army's bye week — which occurred one week before its matchup with Notre Dame — the Black Knights held the nation's top scor- ing defense, only surrendering about 10 points per game. So, I won't expect the Irish to put up another 50 points like they did against Navy. Still, even with its tough defense, Army allowed 28 points to East Carolina. At the very least, I think the Irish can get at least 10 more points when they face the Knights at Yankee Stadium. Notre Dame's defense is similarly stout, making it tough for Army to sneak points past Al Golden. Tyler Horka: Notre Dame 35, Army 13 We've seen this act before. Notre Dame is up against an undefeated service academy in the New York City area. A bunch of outsiders are thinking this could be a spot for an upset special. It's Army's year, yeah? Well, wasn't it Navy's year, too? The Fighting Irish thrashed the Midshipmen, 51-14. This one will be a bit closer because Army's defense is better than that of Navy, and Bryson Daily is probably a more productive quarter- back than Blake Horvath, but the presence of Daily will only result in one more score and one fewer point — a touchdown and two field goals opposed to two touchdowns. None of those combinations is enough to beat a Notre Dame team finding out a lot of good things about itself offensively. Irish win big. Jack Soble: Notre Dame 31, Army 14 This game is interesting, because while Army has steamrolled through its schedule, it has played the 133rd-best slate (out of 134 teams) in the country. The Black Knights haven't played a group anywhere near as good as Notre Dame on either side of the ball. I think Army's defense will give the Irish fits at times. It's been too dominant this season — even if it was against poor com- petition — not to. I'm less concerned, though, about the Black Knights' traditional triple-option offense. The Irish are well-versed in stopping that by now, and if North Texas can hold it to 14 points, so can Notre Dame. This will be closer than the Navy game, per- haps with some look-ahead to USC. But I still like the Irish by three scores. Junior slot back Noah Short averages a whopping 10.7 yards per rush and also had 11 catches for 259 yards and three touchdowns. PHOTO COURTESY ARMY ATHLETICS Staff Predictions