Penn State Sports Magazine
Issue link: https://comanpub.uberflip.com/i/1546159
S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 6 4 9 W W W . B L U E W H I T E O N L I N E . C O M E D I T O R I A L MATT HERB MATT.HERB@ON3.COM VARSITY VIEWS I s Penn State a legitimate College Football Playoff contender this fall? That's a fair question, considering the Nittany Lions are getting set to start their season in the general vicinity of the 12-team cutoff line. They're 17th in the AFCA Coaches Poll, and that ranking tracks with their spot in the various media polls that have appeared in recent months. It might actually be easier to gauge the Lions' playoff worthiness in the seasons to come, as opposed to the one that's about to begin. Will they be CFP con- tenders in future years? Almost certainly — and so will every other major program. The reason for those improved odds has less to do with the quality of coach Matt Campbell's roster than with the expected growth of the playoff field from 12 to 24 teams sometime in the years ahead. Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti is a playoff maximalist, and he appears to have the clout to impose his vision on the sport, even with the SEC attempting to pump the brakes. "We're trying to do this together," Pe- titti said at Big Ten Media Days in July. "I think there's been a lot of movement among coaches and ADs around the country that 24 is the right number, but we have to see if it has the right value." For those of us old enough to re- member when the Big Ten was leading the opposition to a playoff of any kind, it's been head-spinning to watch the shift. League officials used to treat the Rose Bowl as something akin to a reli- gious experience; now they're pushing all the bowls into a subservient role. One of the arguments in favor of playoff expansion is that it will result in fewer nonconference schedules like the one Campbell inherited at Penn State featuring Marshall, Temple and Buffalo. Last year, the Lions played two Group of Five opponents (Nevada, Florida In- ternational) and an FCS foe (Villanova). That's far from ideal, and while Camp- bell was noncommittal when asked about a potential Big Ten rule requiring teams to play at least one Power Four nonconference opponent, he wasn't necessarily opposed to the idea. "The landscape is constantly shift- ing around us," he said. "As we settle in, maybe I'll have a better answer for that." Even without a formal plan in place to expand the playoff, USC recently agreed to a four-year resumption of its historic Notre Dame rivalry, which is currently on hiatus. So, there's some evidence to support the theory that a more capa- cious CFP field will make playoff hope- fuls a little less timid about scheduling quality nonconference games. That's the good news. The bad news is that the outcome of those games will be less significant because everyone will have a lot more margin for error than they had be- fore. If the 2025 playoff had included 24 teams, the last entrant would have been Iowa, which finished 8-4. The Hawkeyes dropped all of their games against ranked opponents, including a 16-13 loss to Campbell's Iowa State Cy- clones. That's hardly a playoff résumé, and an expanded field would also have included eight three-loss teams. A 24-team playoff may or may not offer the "right value" to the Big Ten's broadcast partners, who are clearly driving these decisions, but it's almost certainly a bad idea for college football. Among the sport's unique and com- pelling aspects is the unforgiving nature of its regular season. Back when the playoff consisted of only four teams, the season was essentially one giant double- elimination tournament. Ten years ago, for example, Penn State won the Big Ten but missed out on the CFP because it had lost to Pitt and Michigan in September. Even now, with 12 teams allowed in, the regular season is a minefield. PSU fans will recall that the Lions found themselves in a close game at Minnesota two years ago in which they needed a fake punt late in the fourth quarter to run out the clock. It was an exceptionally tense evening, in large part because a loss might have derailed their playoff hopes. That kind of drama is common at the college level but rare in the NFL. The league's eight division champi- ons averaged 4.8 losses last year, and its six wild card teams averaged 5.6. The Carolina Panthers made the NFC playoffs with a .500 record. For all the excitement of the NFL's regular season, it's nothing like its college counterpart, in which every opponent, no matter how seemingly overmatched, has the potential to ruin your year. To a Penn State program that has made the CFP just once, expansion might sound enticing, but at what cost? This is one instance in which less is more. ■ Playoff Expansion May Help PSU, But There's A Price Penn State beat SMU, 38-10, at Beaver Stadium in 2024, its first College Football Playoff appearance. PHOTO BY STEVEN WALTER/ PENN STATE ATHLETICS