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Guessing Games End With Oklahoma A third of the college football season has been torn off the calendar. Two more weeks and it will be in a downhill race toward bowl season. And still it's impossible to tell how far away Notre Dame is from the team that brought them back to the national championship game a year ago. If the Irish have developed one constant identity in the past couple years under Brian Kelly, it's that they like to play it coy. murphy's Law dan murphy No. 22 Notre Dame's 3-1 record is easy to spin in opposite directions. The homer says they've come out of a threegame stretch against Big Ten teams with a chance for a BCS trip still very much intact. The doubter counters that they've squeaked past two weak Midwest teams after losing to Michigan and the road gets rockier from here. The only difference between in the perception of Notre Dame through four games this year and last is the Wolverines played poorly in a 13-6 loss in 2012 and they played well in a 41-30 win this season. Questions about Notre Dame's bona fides persisted until the end of October a year ago when the Irish officially came contenders by beating Oklahoma in Norman. It's earlier this season, but the Sooners provide another crimson litmus test for the Irish on Saturday. Win and Kelly's team has a good chance to play in January. Lose and the 2012 team starts to look a lot like the other one-hit wonders that have raised false hope in South Bend in the past 15 years. Notre Dame's quandary exists because of its affinity and aptitude for playing in close games. Isn't it a bad sign that a top-tier team so often needs to be backed into a corner before showing its teeth? National measuring sticks Alabama and Oregon have won by an average margin of 29.8 points and 35.6 points, respectively, during their last 16 regular-season games. Note Dame's margin of victory during that span is 15.3 points. Then again, all three teams have identical 15-1 records during that stretch. The Irish have let underdogs hang around frequently during their recent run of success, but it hasn't hurt them yet. Kelly's teams are 10-1 in their last 11 games decided by a touchdown or less. The only loss in that stretch was an 18-14 defeat at the hands of Florida State in the 2011 Champs Sports Bowl. Winning close games has been the one major change that's carried the Irish out of mediocrity and into discussions about why they aren't winning by more points. In Kelly's first 16 games he went 2-5 in games decided by a touchdown or less. "I think it's just a matter of time," Kelly said. "We're four years into our program. Our kids believe that they will win if they prepare the right way and they take care of the things that they're supposed to. It's the will to prepare and it's the belief that they can win." The residue of belief from a year ago might carry over inside the Irish locker room, but it hasn't survived outside of it. Notre Dame's door-slamming defense hasn't been the same this year. Its cornerstone has been moved to San Diego. A few miles away, the offense's top playmaker is dodging beanbags on a beach while training in temporary exile. And yet, a win against Oklahoma on Saturday — whether it's a close score or not — should be enough evidence that whatever elements carried the Irish to a 12-1 record For the second year in a row, senior wide receiver Jalen Saunders and the Sooners will provide the Irish with a litmus test. photo courtesy oklahoma last season are still present in South Bend. The Sooners helped to end the guessing game last year in a meeting that until midway through the fourth quarter, looked like it would be decided on the final possession. Notre Dame pulled away and was no longer a mystery. Eleven months later, the Irish are covered in more question marks than a Matthew Lesko suit. Can the Irish defense ✦ Page 21 regain its confidence against a legitimate offense? Can quarterback Tommy Rees muster up enough production to keep pace? Is Kelly building a program or a flash in the pan? Once again, Oklahoma arrives to provide the answers. It's getting harder for the Irish to be coy. ✦ E-mail Dan at dmurphy@blueandgold.com. You can follow him on Twitter at @BGI_DanMurphy.