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BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED SENIOR EDITOR LOU SOMOGYI BREAKING DOWN THE PINSTRIPE BOWL NOTRE DAME MVP: Quarterback Tommy Rees X-FACTOR: Lower-level bowl games often come down to one question: Which team is genuinely excited to play, and which one isn't? Sometimes when the season wasn't fulfilling, you either bust out with an explosive performance to leave a good taste within, or mentally check out just waiting to get the season finished. This isn't what Notre Dame aspired toward after last season's trip to the BCS National Championship Game, but I doubt the group that built so much last year wants to finish with three losses in their final four games. Rutgers already has had somewhat of a house cleaning while firing three assistants, which can't help morale after losing five of the last seven, with the average margin of defeat of 23.8 points per game. ANALYSIS: It looks quite impressive that Rutgers is No. 4 nationally against the run, but that's in part because teams pass at will against them. That's like when the 3-9 Irish were ranked No. 2 in passing yards given up per game in 2007. Opponents ran at will, so they didn't really need to toss it around, and then they just ran out the clock. If Notre Dame can get out of the gates fast — one of its weakest points throughout this season — this game has the makings of the 49-21 win and passing blitzkrieg versus Hawaii in the 2008 Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. It will be vital to not let Rutgers hang around too long in this game. PREDICTION: Notre Dame 35, Rutgers 16 BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED ASSISTANT EDITOR DAN MURPHY NOTRE DAME MVP: Quarterback Tommy Rees X-FACTOR: The first time Rutgers freshman Janarion Grant touched a football in a college game he returned it 100 yards for a touchdown. Grant's auspicious debut came on the opening kickoff of the Scarlet Knights' first game of the season against Fresno State. He later returned a punt for a touchdown to spark a win over Arkansas. Notre Dame's coverage units on special teams have struggled this season. The Irish rank 82nd nationally in punt defense and 122nd in kickoff, defense. Grant and his teammates returned a total of four kicks for scores this season and averaged 7.3 yards on punt returns. In a lopsided bowl matchup, a big play in the early going could give Rutgers the spark it needs to compete with the Irish. It could also remind Notre Dame's players that they really didn't want to spend their bowl season playing a 6-6 team in the cold and potentially snowy Bronx. ANALYSIS: When Rutgers thrived this season, it thrived on big plays. Bob Diaco built Notre Dame's defense to first and foremost avoid the big play. Diaco moved on, but his philosophy remains for at least one more game, and that should help the Irish take care of business in New York City. Even if the game does turn into a shootout, Rees and Notre Dame's receivers should have a fun day against a secondary that allowed more passing yards (311.4 per game) than all but three Football Bowl Subdivision schools this fall. PREDICTION: Notre Dame 38, Rutgers 22 BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED FOOTBALL RECRUITING EDITOR TOM LOY NOTRE DAME MVP: Quarterback Tommy Rees X-FACTOR: The Rutgers defense will likely sit back and force the senior Rees to throw accurately into tight windows and beat them with his arm. With less of a pass rush and less pressure up front, the Irish rushing attack could play a major role in the final outcome of the game. If the running back group of freshman Tarean Folston and juniors Cam McDaniel, George Atkinson III and Amir Carlisle can get the ground game going early, the Rutgers defense could be in for a very long day. ANALYSIS: The Irish should be able to establish a strong passing game against a Scarlet Knights defense that is ranked 120th nationally (311.4 yards allowed per game). Rees should have one of his strongest performances of the season and will look to cap off a solid career with a win for the Fighting Irish. Senior ✦ PAGE 5 wide receiver TJ Jones could have a field day against the Rutgers secondary and will likely put on a show for the NFL scouts in attendance. The Scarlet Knights have faced some quality receivers this year, but very few with the combination of speed and quickness that Jones possesses. Rutgers will likely lean on redshirt sophomore running back Paul James, who has averaged 5.7 yards per carry on the season, to spark the offense. Notre Dame should win this game by two scores, but it wouldn't be a shock it this became a shootout, with the winning team having the ball last. PREDICTION: Notre Dame 38, Rutgers 27 BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED STAFF WRITER ANDREW OWENS NOTRE DAME MVP: Wide receiver TJ Jones X-FACTOR: One thing Rutgers does well is stop the run. The Scarlet Knights finished the regular season ranked fourth nationally in rushing defense (94.58 yards allowed per game). Coupled with Notre Dame's anemic rushing offense (ranked 83rd at 148.92 yards per contest), there's a good chance the Irish will rely on their passing attack to move the ball. Only three teams allowed more yards per game through the air than Rutgers (311.4) during the 2013 regular season. Matters were so desperate and the depth chart so thin that head coach Kyle Flood played wide receivers at cornerback in a couple instances. Jones has been a consistent force for Notre Dame with touchdown catches in nine of 12 games, and it would not be a surprise to see him lead the way offensively in his final game in an Irish uniform. ANALYSIS: One question will be repeated over and over during the next week: Will Notre Dame want to be there? The players have said all the right things after initially wanting a warmer location, but this game will come down to the team's mindset after a disappointing season. Rutgers is one of the worst teams that qualified for a bowl game, and a win for the Irish cannot provide as much positive momentum as the negative feelings a loss would cause. PREDICTION: Notre Dame 38, Rutgers 13