Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU The chart illustrates how the Irish program progression over Kelly's first three seasons was similar to the trajec- tory most of the champions followed in their run up to a title. The 2013 and 2014 seasons derailed that trajectory for Notre Dame, however. What will it take to get back on track? Simply put, Notre Dame needs to start by winning more of its games against weaker programs. I compared the preseason program ratings of the two teams in every FBS game played in the last five seasons. Teams with a better program rating than their opponent won 68.5 percent of those matchups in that span. Notre Dame has done slightly better, win- ning 71.4 percent of its matchups (30- 12) since 2010 against opponents with a worse program rating than the Irish. That's not terrible, but it won't prog- ress the program toward a national championship. Among the 18 teams listed in Table 1, Notre Dame has the worst record against weaker programs. On average, the other 17 programs won 82.1 percent of their FBS games against weaker program opponents in the last five seasons. That kind of record would have been worth an extra victory in four of Kelly's five seasons. A 49-16 record (.754), four more wins over the last five years, would have the Irish ranked 11th in FBS winning percentage since 2010, and ninth among major conference programs. Looking ahead to next season, the Irish schedule features three games against opponents with a stronger program rating — at Clemson Oct. 3, home versus USC Oct. 17 and at Stan- ford Nov. 28. These three games may be the most important in building a résumé for a run at a playoff berth. But in terms of building Notre Dame's program profile for multiple playoff runs over the next few seasons, the other nine games on the schedule are even more critical. A 9-0 record against weaker programs isn't a lofty goal, but it is a critical one that the Irish must secure to re-ignite a trajec- tory toward elite program status. ✦ Brian Fremeau of ESPN/Football Outsiders has been a statistical analyst at Blue & Gold Illustrated since January 2015. He can be reached at bcfremeau@gmail.com. BEST FBS WIN PERCENTAGE SINCE 2010 Team W-L Pct. 1. Oregon 55-8 .873 2. Alabama 53-9 .855 3. Ohio State 55-11 .833 4. Boise State 54-11 .831 5. Florida State 52-11 .825 t6. Northern Illinois 52-13 .800 t6. Stanford 52-13 .800 8. Michigan State 49-14 .778 9. LSU 47-14 .770 10. Oklahoma 50-15 .769 11. Oklahoma State 45-17 .726 12 South Carolina 44-17 .721 13. Wisconsin 45-18 .714 14. TCU 42-17 .712 t15. Clemson 42-18 .700 t15. Baylor 42-18 .700 17. Central Florida 44-19 .698 18. Notre Dame 45-20 .692