Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU campus. Several members of the 2015 class certainly have the talent to contribute right away, but with an experienced roster of upperclassmen, Notre Dame shouldn't need to force the freshmen into action until they're ready. On average, Football Bowl Subdivi- sion teams return 13.5 combined offen- sive and defensive starters per season. The Irish have returned an average of 13.6 starters per season over the last five years and have ranked in the mid- dle of the FBS curve in terms of roster experience throughout the Kelly era. That will change dramatically this fall. In 2015, Notre Dame will return 19 of its 22 starters from the Music City Bowl victory over LSU, and 18 of its 22 regular season starters. Those numbers do not include the anticipated return of cornerback KeiVarae Russell, defen- sive end Ishaq Williams and linebacker Jarrett Grace, each of whom tallied sig- nificant experience in an Irish uniform prior to last season. In terms of total returning start- ers, Notre Dame will field its most experienced team in years, the most experienced team among Power Five conference schools in 2015 and one of the most experienced teams in college football this fall. Experience alone won't win a na- tional championship, but it could help. There is a measurable relationship between the total number of return- ing starters on a given team and that team's expected improvement (or re- gression) in performance on the field. One basic measure of performance is net points per possession, a pace- adjusted measure of team scoring ef- ficiency. Consider an example of an Irish victory over an opponent by a score of 31-24 in a game that features 12 possessions for each offense. Notre Dame would have scored 2.6 points per possession (31/12=2.6) and the op- ponent would have scored 2.0 points per possession (24/12=2.0). In this ex- ample, Notre Dame would have a 0.6 net points per possession margin (2.6- 2.0=0.6) for the game. Teams that return an above average number of returning starters in a given season (14 or more) improve their net points per possession the following season by an average of 0.2 points. Conversely, teams that return 13 or fewer starters regress their net points per possession margin by 0.2 points. Those numbers may not appear to be extraordinary, but they can make a difference over the course of a season that features more than 150 posses- sions per team. The difference can be especially impactful when a team re- turns significantly more starters than average. Only 5.3 percent of teams over the last five years returned at least 18 starters in a given season. Those teams improved by an average of 0.6 net points per possession over their previous season average. In a game like the example provided above, this would translate to a seven- point advantage. How much is that kind of advantage worth? Three losses last season — Florida State, North- western and Louisville — would have been victories if the Irish had received a 0.6 net points-per-possession bump.