Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU on both the strengths and weaknesses of that team, but also its opponents' strengths and weaknesses. A year ago at this time, my projec- tion measures indicated that the Irish would likely be a top-20 team, but would also struggle to win more than seven games. Among the predicted top-20 teams coming out of last spring, Notre Dame had the lowest projected regular-season win total according to my efficiency projections —7.4. mean wins, the average number of wins a team would be expected to have if the season were played many times. This was due primarily to the num- ber of quality opponents the Irish would face, especially road games against Florida State, Arizona State and Southern California. Strength of schedule can be per- ceived in a number of ways, and often fans focus first and foremost on the number of elite opponents on a given schedule. Notre Dame really didn't face any world-beaters in 2014 — even Florida State, undefeated in the regu- lar season, was more akin to a solid top-15 opponent in terms of efficiency rather than an elite one. However, the Irish schedule was packed with projected above-average opponents, from Stanford to Louis- ville, and even going against the often- troublesome Navy triple option that gave eventual national champ Ohio State fits (the Buckeyes led only 20-17 early in the fourth quarter). Elite teams have little trouble against non-elite opponents (91 percent win likelihood), but it is much more diffi- cult for the next tier to face that type of opponent week in and week out. Teams ranked outside the top 15 win only 62 percent of their games against opponents ranked between 16th and 50th. That's where most of the oppo- nents on the Irish schedule are often ranked in a given season, and the 2015 schedule is no different. The Irish will face eight opponents this fall that have a strong likelihood of falling within that range according to my post-spring projections: Texas, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Navy, USC, Head coach Brian Kelly's offense averaged 32.8 points per game last season, Notre Dame's highest output in nine years. PHOTO BY JOE RAYMOND