Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
Issue link: https://comanpub.uberflip.com/i/514677
IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU Temple, Pittsburgh and Stanford. That's not even including Boston Col- lege, which upset USC last season and has a history of playing at peak level versus the Irish. If the Irish are merely strong enough to rank among the top 20 most effi- cient teams in the nation this year, four losses are well within the realm of pos- sibility against that set of opponents. On the other hand, a Notre Dame team that is one of the 10 best in the nation in combined offensive and de- fensive efficiency will have individual game win likelihoods better than 80 percent in at least eight of its regular- season games since the schedule proj- ects to be devoid of elite opponents. An Irish team of that caliber will most likely win at least 10 games overall in 2015 and find itself very much in the thick of the playoff chase. The projections in 2015 look even more promising when viewing more closely what Irish opponents are re- placing, especially on the defensive side of the ball. • Five Stanford players were se- lected in the first three rounds of the 2015 NFL Draft, including three de- fensive starters that helped hold the Irish to only 17 points in a thriller last season. • Six USC players were drafted, in- cluding defensive end Leonard Wil- liams at sixth overall. • Two Clemson linebackers were taken in the first round among four Ti- gers defensive starters drafted in total. • Two Virginia linebackers were drafted. • Texas had a first-round defensive tackle and three other defensive start- ers drafted. Those five teams all ranked among the top 25 in opponent-adjusted defen- sive efficiency, according to my num- bers last year. They were each particu- larly effective at limiting opponent big plays, allowing an explosive drive (a possession that averages at least 10 yards per play) on less than 10 percent of opponent possessions in 2014. Each of those teams is likely to take a step back in defensive efficiency this fall because of the loss of top talent to the NFL, and Notre Dame's loaded and veteran roster on offense should be able to take advantage. The Irish featured their most dy- namic offense of the Brian Kelly era last season, recording an explosive drive on 17 percent of its non-garbage possessions in 2014. They were also their most efficient in moving drives into scoring range — 51 percent of Notre Dame's possessions reached the opponent's 30-yard line, the 13th best rate nationally. That is a measure that the Irish offense has improved each year since Kelly took the reins, and one that championship offenses often dominate. There remains a lot of time between now and kickoff against the Texas Longhorns Sept. 5, but a few key projection indicators point to a very promising season in 2015. ✦ Brian Fremeau of ESPN/Football Outsiders has been a statistical analyst at Blue & Gold Illustrated since January 2015. He can be reached at bcfremeau@gmail.com.