Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
Issue link: https://comanpub.uberflip.com/i/561665
IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU T he start of the 2015 season is here, and the Irish are receiving more publicity as a potential champi‑ onship contender than at the start of any other season in the Brian Kelly era. Several media outlets have picked Notre Dame to be selected to the Col‑ lege Football Play‑ off. Coaches across the country have expressed concern — directly or indi‑ rectly — that the independent Irish might steal a play‑ off spot away from the champion of their conference. The Notre Dame fan base is expect‑ ing, and in some cir‑ cles demanding, a major step forward on the field this fall. What would a major step forward really look like, and when might it be evident? In an article published earlier this summer, I indicated that the num‑ bers suggest a 4‑0 start is statistically likely for the Irish (56 percent) — but that likelihood might be more a func‑ tion of the strength of the opposition and the home/road split of the games than any other fac‑ tor. If Notre Dame beats Texas, Vir‑ ginia, Georgia Tech, and Massachusetts to start the year, will enough have been learned to project success for the rest of the season going forward? Elite teams are defined not just by their win‑loss col‑ umns, but also by how they perform in those wins and losses. I recently ana‑ lyzed the Massey Consensus, a com‑ posite of more than 100 college foot‑ ball rating systems compiled to pro‑ duce a consensus ranking order of teams. Teams that finished a season among the top five in the Massey Consensus were catego‑ rized in my analysis as "elite," and I explored the nature of their wins and losses against other opponent ranking categories. Overall, elite teams combined to win Irish Can Prove They Are Elite With Their On-Field Performance Head coach Brian Kelly's teams have won by an average of 8.3 points per game during his time in South Bend, and it will take a higher scoring margin to elevate Notre Dame to consistently elite status. PHOTO BY JOE RAYMOND