Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU B rian Kelly is now six years into his tenure at Notre Dame, and in Janu- ary he signed a contract extension for another six seasons as head coach of the Fighting Irish. If he remains in the job through that contract, he will have stood on the Irish sideline for more games than any other head coach in the history of the program. That kind of longev- ity at Notre Dame will be notable in and of it- self, but an even more significant question is on the mind of the fan base: Will the Irish win a na- tional championship in that time span? However, a fairer ques- tion is: Will the Irish be in position to win a national championship during that stretch? Statues don't get erected for coaches that merely come close, but the next step for the Irish pro- gram doesn't have to be the top of the mountain — the program first needs to approach that summit with regularity. Consider the programs that have been selected to participate in the first two iterations of the College Football Playoff in 2014 and 2015 — Alabama (twice), Clemson, Florida State, Michi- gan State, Ohio State, Oregon and Okla- homa. The Crimson Tide, Buckeyes and Seminoles have won the last three national titles, and they are the only programs in that group to have won a championship in the last 15 years. Should the Irish measure themselves against only Alabama, Ohio State and Florida State, or against the whole group? There is certainly evi- dence that the entire group has stood ahead of the Irish over the last six seasons. In fact, that group has stood ahead of almost all college foot- ball teams over the last six seasons. If we list teams by their Football Bowl Sub- division record since the start of the 2010 season, Notre Dame would rank 17th nationally at 55-23 (.705 win percentage) and 14th among Power Five programs. The seven pro- grams selected to the College Football Playoff in 2014 and 2015 are all ranked among the most successful Power Five programs over the last six years (see chart). The basis of my annual team effi- ciency projections is program success, year-over-year trends that consistently prove to be strong indicators of win- ning in the future. It is no coincidence that playoff teams in a given season were very successful over several years before that season began. Champion- Taking The Next Step As A Program Brian Kelly has led the Irish to the best five-year winning percentage (.723, 47-18 from 2011-15) for the program since the end of the Lou Holtz era (.725, 44-13-2 from 1992-96). PHOTO BY BILL PANZICA