Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU ship-level programs don't typically crop up overnight in college football. They most often emerge from the tier below after a strong foundation of year-over-year success is achieved. The Irish are in position to take that next step as a program, and it has been a long time coming. Notre Dame is 47-18 (.723) over the last five sea- s o n s , t h e b e s t five-year winning percentage for the program since the end of the Lou Holtz era (.725, 44- 13-2 from 1992-96). A strong 2016 season would push the Irish alongside the nation's five-year best. If Notre Dame posts a 10-2 record next fall, the Irish's five-year FBS record would stand at 49-15 (.766). Eight programs posted a record of 49-15 or better over the last five years, and seven of them made the playoff in 2014 or 2015. Notre Dame finished the 2015 season with its best opponent-adjusted single- season efficiency rating since I started working with college football data 13 years ago. Ten wins against what my numbers measured to be the third- toughest schedule in the country was certainly an impressive season. The Irish didn't record a victory over a top-15 opponent, however, going 0-3 against Clemson, Stanford and Ohio State. Wins over that level of compe- tition are essential to taking the next step. Heading into the postseason, Col- lege Football Play- off teams in the last two seasons com- bined to post a 16-2 record (9-1 in 2015 and 7-1 in 2014) against other top- 15 opponents. That's the dif- ference between an Irish program r a n k e d o n t h e fringe of the top 10 and one that can take the next step to compete for na- tional championships over the next six seasons. Kelly's teams to date have combined to go 4-11 against top-15 op- ponents since 2010. If the Irish grab an average of one more such win in each of the next six seasons than it had over the last six, Notre Dame's record would vault alongside Oklahoma's (see chart) — which would put it in position to win a national championship. ✦ Brian Fremeau of ESPN/Football Outsiders has been a statistical analyst at Blue & Gold Illustrated since January 2015. He can be reached at bcfremeau@gmail.com. WINNING PERCENTAGE IN FBS GAMES AMONG POWER FIVE PROGRAMS FROM 2010-15 Rk. School Record Win% 1. Alabama* 66-10 .868 2. Ohio State* 67-12 .848 3. Oregon* 63-12 .840 4. Florida State* 61-14 .813 5. Stanford 64-15 .810 6. Michigan State* 61-16 .792 7. Oklahoma* 61-17 .782 8. LSU 56-17 .767 9. Clemson* 55-19 .743 10. TCU 52-19 .732 11. Oklahoma State 54-20 .730 12. Wisconsin 55-21 .724 13. Baylor 51-21 .708 14. Notre Dame 55-23 .705 15. Georgia 50-24 .676 * Earned a College Football Playoff berth in 2014 and/or 2015