Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU ing at least one first down per drive. The national average first down rate is 71.2 percent, and the Irish have cleared that mark on offense in each of the last five seasons. The 2015 offense ranked 10th na- tionally in first down rate, earning at least one first down on 78.6 percent of its offensive possessions. Again, that ranks as slightly below aver- age in comparison to the national championship units of the last six seasons. The best rate among that group was a whopping 83.3 percent first down rate posted by Auburn in 2010. The 2012 defense allowed a first down rate of 65.6 percent, good for 21st-best in the nation that season. As with available yards, that rate doesn't compare well with the championship defenses since 2011 in particular. On average those defenses allowed a first down rate of only 57.0 percent, and even after including 2010 Auburn's more pedestrian defense, the six-year championship average is still less than 60 percent. Points Per Value Drive — Value drives are defined as possessions that move from a team's own side of midfield into scoring range across the opponent's 30-yard line. Scoring on those opportunities in particular is key measure for a team's ability to maximize possessions. In 2015, Notre Dame ranked well in overall offensive scoring rates but that was bolstered by the Irish big- play touchdown rates, obscuring some struggles in the red zone. The Irish scored 5.3 points per value drive last season, good for only 31st-best nationally, and this repre- sented the best value drive scoring rate of the Brian Kelly era. On aver- age, the national championship of- fenses have bested that rate by 0.2 points per drive. Three of the last four national champions ranked in the top 10 in this measure. The 2012 defense did perform well in comparison with the national championship cohort since 2010, al- lowing only 3.7 points per value drive (eighth nationally). Again, however, several championship teams have far exceeded the best Irish defense. Ala- bama's 2011, 2012, and 2015 teams as well as the 2013 Florida State defense each ranked among the top five na- tionally in this measure. Notre Dame doesn't need to rank No. 1 in these or any other statisti- cal categories in order to achieve its goals. But even the best offense and defense fielded by the Irish in the Kelly era thus far would have room to improve to truly be counted among the elite. There are signs in recruiting and on the field success to date that indicate the gap can be closed. But in order to do so, Notre Dame needs to continue to find ways to improve efficiency on both sides of the ball. ✦ Brian Fremeau of ESPN/Football Outsiders has been a statistical analyst at Blue & Gold Illustrated since January 2015. He can be reached at bcfremeau@gmail.com.