Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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16 PRESEASON 2018 BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED UNDER THE DOME CHARTING THE IRISH MICHIGAN COULD DETERMINE NOTRE DAME'S ULTIMATE FATE IN 2018 On Sept. 1, Notre Dame and Michigan will meet for the 43rd time in series history and the 32nd time since 1978. The Wolverines dominated the beginning of the series, winning the first eight matchups, with five of those com‑ ing before the start of the 20th century. Since 1942 it's been an even 16‑16‑1 split between the two programs. Notre Dame took the last meeting in 2014, blanking Michigan 31‑0 at home. For the Irish, a win or a loss against the Wolverines can be a preview of how the season will play out. The last 10 times Notre Dame has taken down Michigan during the regular season, seven top‑25 finishes in the Associated Press poll have occurred, not even including the 1988 na‑ tional title. On the flip side, the Irish have finished in the top 25 just twice during the 10 most recent seasons that included a loss to the Wolverines (see chart to the right). Notre Dame is 93‑32 (.744 winning percentage) during the last 10 seasons it has claimed a win over Michigan, and just 67‑57‑1 (.536) during the last 10 campaigns it has lost to the Maize and Blue. WINNING THE CLOSE ENCOUNTERS When it comes to close games, they tend to even out over time — even if they come in clusters one way or the other. For example, during Notre Dame's 12-0 regular-season march in 2012, it was 5-0 in games determined by seven points or less, not including holding on in the finale at USC to win 22-13, a game closer than the margin of vic- tory indicated. Four years later during a nightmare 4-8 campaign, the Fighting Irish were 1-6 in outcomes determined by seven points or less. In five of them Notre Dame had a lead in the fourth quarter, and in the sixth it was tied in the fourth quarter. Those were the two extremes under head coach Brian Kelly — 5-0 one year and 1-6 the other — for an "even" 6-6 result. In the three seasons from 2014-16, Notre Dame was involved in 18 games (six per season) in which the outcome was decided by seven points or less. The Irish were 7-11 in such contests, with the 1-6 ledger in 2016 significantly impacting that result. Then last year in game two, Notre Dame lost a 20-19 heartbreaker at home to Georgia, which would go on to advance to play Alabama in the national title showdown won by the Crimson Tide in overtime. That dropped the Irish to 1-7 in their last eight contests decided by one score. Notre Dame ran roughshod over its next six opponents, winning by at least 20 points in all of them, a first since the 1966 national champs. Beginning with the 24-17 win over Navy last November, it might also be time to "come back to the mean" in winning more of the close ones. It continued with a 21-17 fourth-quarter comeback victory versus LSU in the Citrus Bowl. From 2012 until the controversial loss at Florida State in 2014, Kelly's Notre Dame squads were a ridiculous 12-2 in games decided by seven points or less, including a 10-game winning streak at one point. Only a 12-game win- ning streak by head coach Elmer Layden's Irish from 1937-39 eclipsed that. Overall now, Kelly is 24-20 in those type of outcomes (and 2-4 in overtime) at Notre Dame. Of the 103 games coached by Kelly at Notre Dame (69-34) 44 of them (42.7 percent) were decided by seven or fewer points. Count on similar volume in 2018 … with the pendulum possibly swinging to the "W" side. Following a stretch that saw Notre Dame lose seven of eight contests decided by one score, the Irish have now won two straight after their 21-17 comeback victory versus LSU in the Citrus Bowl. PHOTO BY BILL PANZICA NOTRE DAME VS. MICHIGAN Game Score ND Final Record AP Ranking 2014 W, 31-0 8-5 NR 2013 L, 41-30 9-4 20 2012 W, 13-6 12-1 4 2011 L, 35-31 8-5 NR 2010 L, 28-24 8-5 NR 2009 L, 38-34 6-6 NR 2008 W, 35-17 7-6 NR 2007 L, 38-0 3-9 NR 2006 L, 47-21 10-3 17 2005 W, 17-10 9-3 9 2004 W, 28-22 6-6 NR 2003 L, 38-0 5-7 NR 2002 W, 25-23 10-3 17 1999 L, 26-22 5-7 NR 1998 W, 36-20 9-3 22 1997 L, 21-14 7-6 NR 1994 L, 26-24 6-5-1 NR 1993 W, 27-23 11-1 2 1990 W, 28-24 9-3 6 1989 W, 24-19 12-1 2 Gold lines: wins by Notre Dame; Blue lines: wins by Michigan