The Wolverine

October 2018

The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports

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OCTOBER 2018 THE WOLVERINE 17   INSIDE MICHIGAN ATHLETICS Checking In On The Big Ten Preseason Favorites After Three Weeks This was supposed to be the year that the Big Ten flexed its collective muscle. With five teams ranked among the nation's top 14 in the preseason Associated Press poll, the league was putting the nation on notice. There was even talk of the Big Ten sending more than one participant to the College Football Playoff. It's been a rough start for the conference in 2018, even for the league's top dogs minus the Ohio State machine that keeps on churning. In the fourth AP poll of the season, only the No. 4 Buckeyes and Penn State, which is tied for 10th, remain in the top 14. The five Big Ten programs that were in the first AP top 14 have started a combined 11-3 — but even some of the wins haven't been pretty. The Nittany Lions needed overtime to beat Appalachian State in its season opener, while Wisconsin suffered its first non-conference home loss since 2003 against then-unranked BYU in week three. The week three bye came at the perfect time for Michigan State, which barely avoided a shocking upset at home in week one to Utah State, only to travel to Arizona State and give up 13 fourth-quarter points the following week in a 16-13 loss. Appalachian State, BYU, Utah State and Arizona State — who each, at the very least, put quite the scare into the Big Ten's big boys — boast just a combined 7-4 record through the season's first three weeks. Take out reigning Sun Belt co-champion Appala- chian State and those Big Ten beaters went a combined 17-22 last year. Those results really put Michigan's 2-1 start with the loss to Notre Dame into per- spective. None of those opponents are even within a tier of the team that beat the Wolverines in the season opener — the 3-0 Irish rank No. 8 in both of the major national polls, while residing among the top 18 in each of the other three national rankings noted below, which includes the national power rankings done by ESPN college football expert Mark Schlabach to represent the trained-eye test and a pair of analytics-based metrics to take into account the emotionless numbers. The consensus seems to be that Jim Harbaugh's crew shouldn't be counted out quite yet. Even the metric that graded Penn State the highest — ESPN's FPI, which lists them No. 4 — gives Michigan a 49 percent chance to beat the Nittany Lions Nov. 3. That means despite their differences, the numbers are in agreement that the Wolverines shouldn't face an overwhelming favorite until the season finale. And it's been proven time and time again that anything can happen in "The Game" — underdogs can morph into junkyard dogs, favorites can fall and regardless of what the matchup looks like on paper coming into the game, it can always come down to an inch or two at the end. Preseason Record ESPN Power AP Rank School (Big Ten) AP Coaches Rankings FPI S&P+ 4 Wisconsin 2-1 18 16 18 18 13 5 Ohio State 3-0 (1-0) 4 4 2 3 2 10 Penn State 3-0 t10 9 9 4 8 11 Michigan State 2-1 24 23 NR t13 20 14 Michigan 2-1 19 21 17 8 10 Note: All rankings were updated Sept. 16. ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) is a mea- sure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. Meanwhile, S&P+ is FootballOutsiders.com's college ratings system derived from the play-by-play and drive data of every game. — Ryan Tice ESPN's analytics-based Football Power Index still lists Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines No. 8 nationally after three weeks — how- ever, that ranks third in the Big Ten East Division, behind No. 3 Ohio State and No. 4 Penn State. PHOTO BY BRANDON BROWN and going to the movies." Favorite TV show: "I'm a big Net- flix fan, so I usually like whatever the new show is. People make fun of me because I watch 'Keeping up With the Kardashians' and 'The Real Housewives.'" Favorite movie: "'She's the Man.' I grew up watching it and can prob- ably recite every line." Dream vacation: "My mom and I have always wanted to go to Costa Rica, so that's on my bucket list." Favorite place she's been to: "Lon- don. I loved everything about it. I went there with my family two sum- mers ago and would like to go back someday." Favorite professional athlete: "I'm Croatian, so I love all the Croatian players in the World Cup — Luka Modric is my favorite." Role model: "My grandma. She's done so much for our family and is always giving of herself to those around her. I would say my dad too because of his work ethic — he in- stilled in me the qualities of persever- ance and resilience." Why she chose Michigan: "When I was being recruited, I originally wanted to stay in California, but then my parents told me about Michi- gan. I was hesitant at first because I didn't know anything about them. I took an unofficial visit there with my dad and fell in love with both the school and the soccer program. The school spirit also jumped out at me — there's an energy on campus, especially in regards to the football program and to March Madness. It's something special, and I'm so lucky to be a part of it." What she hopes to do after soc- cer: "I think I've had enough of the Michigan winters, so I'll be ready to go back to California. I could see my- self in San Francisco — I'm a commu- nications major, so I'm hoping to do something in sales and marketing." Her overall experience at Mich- igan: "It has been everything I could've ever imagined. The team culture is so special, and a lot of pro- grams don't have that. The athletic community in general has such a variety of people here, and they've given me so much more perspective — I couldn't have asked for anything more." — Austin Fox

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