The Wolfpacker: An Independent Magazine Covering NC State Sports
Issue link: https://comanpub.uberflip.com/i/1266731
JULY/AUGUST 2020 ■ 15 TRACKING THE PACK "No, there are a lot of law of averages that should revert to the mean, which should be in NC State's favor. One of the things I always point to is your points off turnovers margin. … How many points did NC State score off opponent's turnovers minus how many points opponents scored off [the Wolfpack's] turnovers. "I take that margin and compare that number to the previous year — what team had the biggest positive growths and negative drops. In most cases you will see a regression towards the mean the fol- lowing year. So if year one is 2018, year two is 2019, year three should be some- where in between in theory if there was a widespread. "NC State had an incredibly wide spread. In fact, they had the second-largest drop in points off turnovers margin in all of FBS last year. If you go back and look, those kinds of numbers are really indica- tive of teams that make a big jump the next year just because they had better luck. "… If I remember, they were in the neighborhood of a 120-point swing in points off turnovers margin [from 2018 to 2019]. If you figure they go to just somewhere in between, and you go down to maybe a minus-40 or somewhere like that — which would still be bad but mark- edly better than last year — that would be about a 70-point swing during the season. That's huge. That's the difference between a couple of wins and a couple of losses." What is your overall outlook for NC State in 2020? "Going through their schedule and look- ing at who they got, if they're healthy I don't think there is a massive talent disad- vantage issue compared to a sizeable per- centage of their schedule. They are going to be at a sizeable disadvantage when they play Clemson, but that's true of everybody. … I think a 6-6 season is probably a very reasonable starting point. "If they develop particularly on defense faster than we might have thought then maybe we are talking about an eight-win season. If they lag a little bit behind then maybe they'll end up 5-7, but I think a bowl game is certainly not out of reach. "I think it's just a matter of a return to norms of luck, and then if the offense pro- gresses the way we think they can 6-6 is a very reasonable starting point." ■ www.acleanerworld.com Right the first time or it's free. LET US DO IT. That jumbled heap of clothing lies in wait. But you have more pressing matters. So, bring the load to us. We'll bring order to the chaos. really like it, UNLESS YOU C.B. Lee & Company Accountants, Consultants & Tax Advisors 4617 Western Blvd., Raleigh, NC 27606 919-851-2640 Fax 919-851-4577 Accounting & Tax Preparation Accounting & Business Managment Services Taxes Individual - Corporate - Partnership - Trusts - LLC's Proud supporter of "The Wolfpack" for over 30 years