Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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46 FEBRUARY 2023 BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED T hree-time Super Bowl champion and Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs had a postulate about what it took (or still takes) for a head coach to survive in the NFL: Do not lose three games in a row. Gibbs did lose his first five games as the first-year head coach of the Wash- ington Redskins in 1980, but that was the honeymoon phase before winning his first Super Bowl in his third season. Once you have been coaching several seasons in the NFL, a three-game losing streak creates an angst among the masses, a crisis in confidence, if not an erosion. There is a corollary to that at Notre Dame for its football head coaches: Do not go three years in a row without playing in a major/BCS bowl (and many would say winning it, too). • Even after opening with back-to- back BCS bids, Charlie Weis was ousted after a three-year run of 16-21 from 2007-09. • Ty Willingham had his moments from 2002-04, but no BCS bid (and a lack of toil on the recruiting trail) got him axed after just three seasons. • The erosion of confidence was there with Bob Davie when he didn't make it to the BCS in his first three years (1997-99), and his future was fragile even after getting there in 2000. • The same held true for Gerry Faust (1981-85), and "Dump Devine" bumper stickers were prominent in Dan Devine's third season when the 8-3 Irish refused a bowl bid in his first season (1975) and went only to the minor Gator Bowl in his second (1976). This is not to infer or promote that Brian Kelly already is or should be on the hot seat in Year 3 after back-to-back five-loss campaigns that yielded no BCS contention and immense frustra- tion. The last thing this program needs is more instability. There should be no panic — but there is some angst that inevitably will fer- ment. That's because in the first five years of the Kelly regime (2010-14), the one I always viewed with the most dis- comfort was 2012 — the same way I did with Weis' third season in 2007 (the 3-9 train wreck). That's because the 2004 and 2005 Irish recruiting classes were easily the lowest rated in school history — but they wouldn't fully manifest until those two classes were juniors and seniors in 2007. Weis had bought himself some coach- ing equity with BCS bids his first two seasons thanks to a strong recruiting haul inked in 2003, led by quarterback Brady Quinn. Once most of that class departed, the program plummeted. In that vein, what is so disappoint- ing about the 2011 season is everything seemed to be set up for Kelly and Co. to build some equity or a nest egg for the rainy days that might occur in 2012 (sort of like with Gene Chizik at Auburn in 2010 prior to retooling in 2011). There was a seasoned senior and for- mer five-star quarterback (Dayne Crist), a senior class that was rated No. 2 in February 2008, a more navigable slate (the Irish were favored in the first 11 games), a new regime at reeling Michi- gan, probation-infested USC at home, momentum from a 4-0 finish in 2010 … how often do you have a confluence of so many potential positive factors? The 2011 season was the one to make a BCS move and expand on some of the on-field credibility begun in November 2010. Instead, the program remains a work in progress, almost uncomfortable with any hint of prosperity — and now 2013 might appear to be a more likely time to make a BCS move than 2012. Next year you either have the status quo at quarterback or you are breaking in someone new again and undergoing more growing pains. There could be ma- jor issues at cornerback and at wide re- ceiver sans Michael Floyd (somewhat of a preview occurred in the fourth quarter versus Florida State), and the road games seem onerous, on paper anyway. However, by 2013, although Manti Te'o graduates, I like several factors: 1. The QB issues should be resolved (if not by then, forget it), and burgeon- ing young targets like DaVaris Daniels, Deontay Greenberry and Ben Koyack can start hitting their stride. 2. Most players begin to flourish by their junior years, and that's when the defense with Aaron Lynch, Stephon Tu- itt, Troy Niklas, et al., should begin to near a crescendo, while the green sec- ondary from 2012 also begins to jell. 3. Michigan (sans Denard Robinson), MSU, USC (sanctions should kick in a little more, and no Matt Barkley) and Oklahoma are all at home (like that's been a big help the past two decades), and the back end of the schedule looks more favorable than in 2012, especially because by then Stanford should be re- turning to its mean. That's what it's come to these days with Notre Dame football's 18-year walk in the desert. It's no longer just "wait 'til next year!' but now it's, "Wait until the year after next!" Kelly and Co. will have the "benefit" of lowered expectations from the public in 2012, so 8-4 or 9-3 next year might be perceived as a pleasant surprise rather than another underachieving campaign. Nevertheless, the "three-year itch" looms. ✦ After Dan Devine went 8-3 in his first season as head coach in 1975 and led the Irish to a Gator Bowl berth in his second year, "Dump Devine" bumper stickers were prominent before he led the Irish to the national championship in 1977. PHOTO COURTESY NOTRE DAME ATHLETICS BEST OF THE FIFTH QUARTER ✦ LOU SOMOGYI ✦ FEBRUARY 2012 Wait 'Til … The Year After Next? EDITOR'S NOTE: The late, great Lou Somogyi possessed an unmatched knowledge of Notre Dame football, and it was his mission in life to share it with others. Those of us at Blue & Gold Illustrated would like to continue to provide his wisdom and unique perspective from his more than 37 years covering the Fighting Irish for this publication.