Penn State Sports Magazine
Issue link: https://comanpub.uberflip.com/i/1505736
S E P T E M B E R 2 0 2 3 3 3 W W W . B L U E W H I T E O N L I N E . C O M Pro Football Focus has been a polarizing site among football fans, but it's become a mainstay at both the college and professional levels, and with good reason: PFF's advanced metrics go well beyond the stats that can be found in even the most extensive box score. With that in mind, here's a position-by-position look at the PFF stats we'll be following closely during the upcoming Penn State football season. Quarterback Big-time throw percentage: In the PFF system, a "big-time throw" is de- scribed as "a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window." In other words, it's a way of quantifying how many exceptional plays a quarterback makes. Last season, Sean Clifford's BTT percentage was 4.0. That's a fairly standard average for a starting college quarterback, and it will be interesting to see how Clifford's successor, sophomore Drew Allar, compares this fall. Running Back Missed tackles forced: Penn State's opponents will likely stack the box with eight defenders to stop Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. That means the two sophomores will need to make some extra defenders miss, which we can track through this stat. Just because a run includes a missed tackle doesn't mean it's good; you can shake off a tackler and still get stopped in the backfield. But using this metric, we can see whether PSU's runners are hard to bring down. Tight End Contested-catch percentage: In juniors Theo Johnson and Tyler Warren, Penn State has two experienced tight ends who both stand 6-foot-6. Their physical prowess should be reflected in this stat. Wide Receiver Yards after catch: Penn State has been trying for the past several seasons to improve in this area. YAC helps the offense by relieving some of the pressure on the quarterback to generate big pass plays. With elusive route-runners like redshirt senior Dante Cephas and junior KeAndre Lambert-Smith in the mix, Penn State should be able to turn short passes into big gains. Offensive Line Pass-blocking efficiency: If we want to gauge whether the line has taken a step forward in pass protection, we can look to this broad efficiency metric. It takes the total number of pressures in relation to the number of pass-blocking snaps to show how often the entire group succeeds. Good offensive lines fall in the 90 percent range, while average ones even out in the mid- to upper 80s. Defensive End Win percentage: Pass rushing is a gold mine of quality data because of its one-on-one nature. The interaction is simple: Did the offensive or defensive lineman win the pass rush? For edge rushers, win percentage measures how often the defensive lineman prevails. Anything over 25 percent is good. So, Chop Robinson reaching 29.8 percent as a sophomore last season is exceptional. Dani Dennis-Sutton's win rate of 30.4 percent as a true freshman is a great indication of his talent. Defensive Tackle Run stops: At this position group, run stops are a good way to measure pro- ductivity. A stop is any tackle that constitutes a win for the defense, relating to down and distance. For example, if an interior lineman makes a tackle after a 3-yard gain on first-and-10, that's a successful play. As a redshirt junior last year, Hakeem Beamon led Penn State with 9 run stops. For reference, Michigan's Kris Jenkins led the Big Ten with 30. Penn State plays a different style of football than Michigan, but having a player who can outright win on the interior would be a huge benefit. Linebacker Stops: We'll go with total stops, because that statistic takes into account a player's all-around impact on the game. For sophomore Abdul Carter, playing with more awareness against the pass is an area of emphasis. He finished 11th in the Big Ten last season with 35 stops, a team-best tally. With another year in the defensive system, he should find himself in the top five in 2023. If he doesn't, it would likely be because ju- nior Curtis Jacobs siphoned off some of that production. That would be a good problem to have. Cornerback Forced incompletion percentage: Last year, Joey Porter Jr. led the Big Ten by forcing incompletions on 40 percent of his targets. Kalen King wasn't far behind, ranking third with a mark of 27 percent. King is returning for his junior season, and he's joined by senior Johnny Dixon (23 percent). To excel in a PSU system that emphasizes man coverage schemes, King and Dixon will need similar production in 2023. Safety Yards after catch: This group did an exceptional job last season of limiting big plays. Ji'Ayir Brown, the team's most active safety, allowed only 110 yards after the catch all year. With Brown gone, can Penn State clamp down on big plays this fall the same way it did a year ago? Senior Keaton Ellis, junior Jaylen Reed, sophomore Kevin Winston Jr. and redshirt sophomore Zakee Wheatley have the necessary skills, but the proof will be in the numbers. — Thomas Frank Carr One Key Stat For Every Penn State Position Group As a true freshman last year, linebacker Abdul Carter ranked 11th in the Big Ten with 35 stops, which are defined by Pro Football Focus as tackles that put the defense in an advantageous down-and-distance situation. PHOTO BY DANIEL ALTHOUSE