Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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BLUEGOLDONLINE.COM OCT. 28, 2023 45 GAME PREVIEW: PITTSBURGH average of 2.8. Even Jurkovec's was 7.2 in his five appearances this season. Whichever Pitt quarterback faces the Notre Dame defense, it's probably not going to be too swell of a time for that fella. Through seven games, Notre Dame had the nation's No. 4 pass efficiency defense behind Penn State, Georgia and Duke. Notre Dame checked in at No. 20 in SIS's points saved per passing play chart, roughly the same positioning as the Irish had in points saved per rushing play. Defense has not been the main issue for the Irish in 2023, and Pitt is going to find that out when it goes to the air. Advantage: Notre Dame NOTRE DAME RUNNING GAME VS. PITT RUN DEFENSE Notre Dame's rushing attack took some hits when it got to the meat of the schedule. The low point was a showing of 81 sack-adjusted rushing yards in the 33-20 loss to Louisville Oct. 7. Teams have figured out that the best way to defend the Irish is to load the box and dare them to throw the football. Per SIS, Notre Dame ball carriers were hit at the line of scrimmage on 50.5 percent of their runs against Ohio State, Duke and Louisville. That percentage was only 36.5 against Navy, Tennessee State, North Carolina State and Central Michigan. The book is out on junior tailback Audric Estimé, too. Estimé led the nation with 387 rushing yards on first down from Week 0 through Week 3. The next closest rusher had 224 rushing yards on first down in the same span. From Week 4 through Week 6, Estimé had only 67 rushing yards on first down. That put him at No. 115 nationally during that stretch. Opponents loaded the box against Notre Dame and it worked. Pitt will likely do the same, but the Junior safety Donovan McMillon averaged a team-best 8.8 tackles per game during the Panthers' 1-4 start. PHOTO COURTESY PITT ATHLETICS Todd D. Burlage: Notre Dame 34, Pitt 17 A Pitt team that was expected to compete for an ACC title this season has drastically underachieved on both sides of the ball instead. It ranks near the bottom nationally in nearly every pertinent statistical category, including total offense, rushing offense, passing offense, passing efficiency defense and turnover margin. The underachievement is surprising given that Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi headed into this season with 20 ACC victories since 2021, which ranked second only to Clemson (21) in the league during that time frame. What's typically a close game in this series won't be this time. Steve Downey: Notre Dame 37, Pitt 13 The Panthers have a history of playing the Irish tough and are coming off a two-year stretch in which they notched 20 wins, two top-25 finishes and an ACC title (2021). However, after a brutal 1-4 start that resulted in the bench- ing of former Irish quarterback Phil Jurkovec, Pitt was tabbed as one of the 10 most disappointing teams in college football by The Athletic. The offensive struggles are not all on Jurkovec, though. The Pitt offensive line has been described as a "turnstile" that has allowed an average of 3.0 sacks per game while hampering ground attack that has averaged just 65.3 yards per contest against Power Five foes. This game figures to look a lot more like what we saw during Notre Dame's 4-0 start than the more recent, brutal four-game stretch against ranked opponents. Kyle Kelly: Notre Dame 24, Pitt 23 Seven of the last 10 times these two teams have played, the final score ended up being decided by seven points or less. I also see this one ending up as a one-possession ball game in a contest that ends up being closer than most Notre Dame fans would have expected before the season. Tyler Horka: Notre Dame 38, Pitt 14 It's getting tough to pick Notre Dame in a blowout over anybody at this stage in the season, which is crazy considering how much of a roll the Fight- ing Irish were on in the first month. But it just feels like Pitt is in way over its head in this matchup. For the first time since Sept. 16, Notre Dame is not playing an undefeated, ranked opponent. And the final score line will show that was the case. Jack Soble: Notre Dame 42, Pitt 17 This season has, to put it mildly, not gone according to plan for Pitt. Through Week 6 the Panthers were 1-4 and Phil Jurkovec got benched. The sad part is that the offense, which entered Week 7 dead last in the ACC in total yards per game, is exactly what head coach Pat Narduzzi wanted. Notre Dame will be rested and ready to finish strong. This one shouldn't be close. Staff Predictions