The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports
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APRIL 2024 ❱ THE WOLVERINE 65 O n March 15, U-M announced that Juwan Howard would not return as head coach next sea- son. The decision to fire Howard came after the Wolverines' worst season in six decades. Despite winning their first three games of the year, their 8-24 re- cord led to their lowest win percentage (25.0) since 1960-61 and first last-place finish in the conference (3-17 Big Ten) since 1966-67. Notwithstanding that Michigan had such a dismal 2023-24 campaign, it was debated whether the Wolverines should retain or move on from Howard given his earlier coaching success, his medical leave to start the season and the imprint he left on the program as a player and member of the Fab Five. However, at the end, it was evident that the bottom had fallen out under Howard and the Wol- verines needed a change of leadership to get back to the bright lights of the sport. An argument for retaining How- ard was a comparison of this season to football's 2020 campaign. After U-M went 2-4 in 2020, it was hotly discussed whether Jim Harbaugh should be fired. Ultimately, athletics director Warde Manuel decided to keep Harbaugh on a renegotiated contract that lowered his salary and added big performance in- centives. In turn, he manufactured an incredible turnaround that led to three straight Big Ten titles and a national championship. However, these were not analogous situations. Harbaugh's 2020 season was a one-blip outlier. In Harbaugh's first five seasons from 2015 through 2019, Michigan was in the top 10 in Bill Con- nelly's SP+ four times and never ranked lower than 13th. The Wolverines were knocking on the door of being elite, but Ohio State kept turning them away in The Game. When Michigan went 2-4 in 2020, that was the COVID-19 pandemic sea- son that was canceled and then revived, which should not require further expla- nation as to why it was so different from every other year. On the other hand, this past season was not a one-blip outlier for Howard. Rather, it was the third year of a down- ward spiral. Yes, Howard experienced early suc- cess at the start of his tenure, and Mich- igan was projected to be a No. 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament in 2019-20 before it was canceled due to the pan- demic. He surprised folks with a Big Ten regular-season championship and Elite Eight berth in 2020-21, and the team was expected to contend for national title again in 2021-22. But that is when the program began to slide. Although they made the Sweet 16 in 2021-22, it was a mirage. They barely squeaked into the NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed and fell from third to 27th in the KenPom ratings. Last season, Michigan failed to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014-15 and dropped to 44th in KenPom despite having two first-round picks and an All-American. This year, the Maize and Blue plum- meted to 127th in KenPom overall and 70th out of 80 high-major schools. The one-blip outlier for Howard was the op- posite of Harbaugh, with football's head man struggling during the pandemic in 2020-21 and basketball's leader making the most of it. Additionally, Howard had off-the- court issues, whether it was obstacles landing recruits or transfers that could be admitted to the school, which cre- ated roster construction imbalances, or physical altercations or heated disagree- ments with opposing coaches and even a Michigan staff member, which led to the departure of well-regarded strength and conditioning director Jon Sanderson. It is difficult enough to turn around a program without the off-the-court problems, let alone with them. There are very few coaches who have done it. Purdue's Matt Painter (ninth, 30th, 74th and 93rd in KenPom from 2011-14 before being a No. 4 seed or better in seven of the last eight NCAA Tournaments) and Villanova's Jay Wright (13th, 17th, 28th and 85th in 2009-12 before two national titles) are probably the best recent ex- amples. But there are too many others who have failed. The task to turn around Michigan's program also would have been tougher for Howard in this day and age of college basketball. With the prominence of the transfer portal and NIL, roster turnover has become like free agency. Given the apathy around the program, the expec- tation is U-M's best players would hit the portal when the Wolverines were already two scholarship players short this year. Leading scorer Dug McDaniel and re- serve guard George Washington III were the first to enter the portal March 18, followed by Tarris Reed Jr. a day later. If Howard had stayed, he would still be on the hot seat, and it would be an ardu- ous task to convince players to come to Ann Arbor. U-M's best chance to rebuild is to sell hope and excitement, and that would only come with a new coach. So, as sad as it is to see such an incred- ible part of Michigan's legacy not have the success envisioned as the team's head coach, this time was the right time to go in a different direction. ❑ INSIDE THE NUMBERS ❱ DREW HALLETT It Was Time to Let Juwan Go Under Juwan Howard this season, Michigan men's basketball finished 127th in the KenPom rankings and was No. 70 out of 80 high-major schools. PHOTO BY LON HORWEDEL Staff writer Drew Hallett has covered Michigan athletics since 2013. Contact him at drew.c.hallett@gmail.com and follow him on X (Twitter) @DrewCHallett.