Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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BLUEGOLDONLINE.COM SEPT. 14, 2024 53 W hen Notre Dame head coach Marcus Free- man called timeout on fourth-and-1 in the early third quarter of Week 1 at Texas A&M, ABC play-by- play announcer Chris Fowler couldn't believe it. With the ball on the Irish 3 4 - y a r d l i n e , Fr e e m a n thought the play clock should have been reset, but it wasn't. That gave Fowler a moment to turn to analyst Kirk Herbstreit and express his incredulous- ness at what Freeman might be about to do. "Kirk, I mean, come on," Fowler said. "We applaud ag- gression in most cases, but you're at your own 34-yard line? You've been stopped two runs in a row?" All true. But Freeman left his offense on the field. Senior quarterback Riley Leonard came out in the shotgun, with graduate student running back Devyn Ford — known for his blocking — to his right. Sophomore wide receiver Jaden Greathouse motioned from the slot to a tight end alignment, and he crouched in a stance built to block. Essentially, the Irish flashed a neon sign that said, "QB run." And they dared the Aggies to stop it. They could not. "I'm asking these guys to be aggres- sive and attack," Freeman said. "And I just didn't want to be cautious in that moment in the game." Leonard took the shotgun snap and headed right. The right side of the offen- sive line did their jobs to clear the hole, as did sophomore tight end Cooper Flana- gan. Ford flung himself into the hole like a battering ram, bashing the linebacker out of the way. Leonard followed suit, picking up the first down and a few more yards. Aggression begets aggression. When Leonard and Ford attacked the line of scrimmage like they did, they followed their head coach. "We want to be aggressive," Freeman said. "We want to be attacking. If I tell our group that we want to be aggressive and attacking, I have to be that way as a coach." Later in the drive, now at Notre Dame's 49-yard line, Freeman did the same thing on fourth-and-2. Same for- mation, Greathouse in motion, same play. Leonard came up just short. The spot, which was upheld upon re- play review, was as close as it could pos- sibly be. If it were called a first down on the field, it probably would have stayed that way, too. But you know what that result should do to Freeman's fourth-down aggressive- ness? Absolutely nothing. And Freeman was unapologetic about it after the game. "You've got to live with sometimes, on fourth-and-2, you didn't get it," Freeman said. "I felt confident that we could get it. I made the decision, and that's why we did it. But I don't want to play caution. I want to be smart." Co nve n t i o n a l w i sd o m says t h e "smart" decision is leaning conserva- tive in fourth-down decision-making. That's what Freeman's college coach and mentor, Jim Tressel, would tell you. But study after study and model after model have proven the opposite to be true. A study from football data scientist Ben Baldwin in Janu- ary showed that when a deci- sion to go for it on fourth down would gain between 1 percent and 4 percent win probability, NFL teams only went for it 36 percent of the time. When a field goal or a punt would gain between 1-4 percent win prob- ability, teams kicked or punted it 99 percent of the time (his model considers the down and distance, score, game situa- tion, strength of each team and several other factors). In general, the more ag- gressive coaches earn their team higher chances to win the game. Freeman considers the probabilities before each game, and he decides which situations he'd go for it and which situations he'd kick. He should be applauded for sticking to his guns. "We have a plan going into the game, and this was our plan," Freeman said. "Hey, 'If it was 1 yard at this situation, we're going for it. If it's 2 yards at this situation, we're going for it.' I want to be aggressive but also smart." And why wouldn't he, with the man Notre Dame has under center? Leonard is 6-foot-4, 216 pounds and one of the most adept runners at the quarterback position in the nation. He may be one of the best-equipped people for goal-line carries in college football. Why wouldn't the Irish put his skills to good use? There was one other factor, too. "I felt strongly about our defense, too," Freeman said. "All those things go into consideration before the game when you make these type of decisions. I had a plan going in to go for it in those situations. But the defense, knowing your defense can [get the stop] goes into consideration." On the ensuing possession, Texas A&M went four-and-out. Notre Dame took a 13-6 lead four plays later. ✦ Notre Dame converted 1 of 2 fourth-down attempts in the victory against Texas A&M, with both coming in Irish territory. On the one the Irish failed to convert, Riley Leonard appeared to reach the line to gain but was spotted short and the call stood after replay review. PHOTO BY CHAD WEAVER Irish Should Stay Aggressive On Fourth Downs Staff writer Jack Soble has covered Notre Dame athletics for Blue & Gold Illustrated since August 2023. Contact him at Jack.Soble@on3.com. OFF THE DOME JACK SOBLE