Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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BLUEGOLDONLINE.COM NOV. 9, 2024 43 GAME PREVIEW: FLORIDA STATE NOTRE DAME RUNNING GAME VS. FLORIDA STATE RUN DEFENSE Florida State's defense has been decidedly bet- ter than its offense, but that doesn't mean it's been good. The Seminoles rank 80th in the country with 5.0 sack-adjusted yards per carry against. Their stuff rate — or percentage of run plays that result in zero or fewer yards — isn't bad, placing 47th nationally at 21.4 percent. But they are prone to explosive plays, giving up 14 carries of 20 yards or more. That's tied with Bowling Green for 120th in the nation. Florida State's defensive ends have been vulner- able, with redshirt junior Patrick Payton missing 21.1 percent of his tackles in the run game (4 of 15). The defensive line as a whole gave the country a lasting image of what it is when it got bullied at the line of scrimmage in the Seminoles' shocking (at the time) Week 0 loss to Georgia Tech. At the second and third levels, redshirt junior safety Shyheim Brown often acts as an extra line- backer and has done his part. He has 10 run stops this season and a PFF run defense grade of 73.8. The actual linebackers, though, haven't made enough plays. For reference, Notre Dame's top three linebackers (Bowen, Kiser and Ausberry) have combined for 34 run stops this year. Florida State's have combined for 25. That's good news for a Notre Dame run game that hasn't been as dominant of late but is still quite dangerous. The Irish still have three ball carriers — senior quarterback Riley Leonard, soph- Todd D. Burlage: Notre Dame 34, Florida State 10 A game that was considered in the preseason as the most anticipated one at Notre Dame Stadium this year, and possibly a play-in game for a spot in the College Football Playoffs, instead has become a matchup for Notre Dame against Florida State that no longer even deserves its primetime spot. Ranked No. 10 in the preseason, the unranked Seminoles entered its game against Miami (Fla.), last weekend on a three-game losing streak and with only one win in seven games. Florida State ranked second to last nationally in total offense (276.0 yards per game) and second to last in scoring offense (15.0 points per game) through seven games. And, with Notre Dame's defense playing as well as any the country, working against a Seminole offense that struggles to score and ranks near the bottom of the NCAA pack in giveaways and taking care of the football, expect the Irish to roll in this one. Steve Downey: Notre Dame 45, Florida State 7 What was once a "must win" game for the Fighting Irish's College Football Playoff hopes has stunningly transformed into a "must not lose" game. To say this season has been an unmitigated disaster for Florida State would be a major understatement. The Seminoles are on track for their worst season in half a century (3-8 in 1975 — the year before legendary head coach Bobby Bowden took over and rebuilt the program). On what will likely be a cold November night, it's nearly impossible to imagine a scenario in which the Seminoles' dreadful offense is able to do much of anything against the Fighting Irish's stingy defense no matter who is at quarterback for them. On the other side of the ball, look for the Notre Dame's stout rushing attack to have its way against a Florida State defense that has been repeatedly gouged on the ground this year. The largest margin of victory in this series — which has featured its share of close contests — was a 37-0 FSU win in 2003, while the Irish's biggest win was 42-13 in 2018. I think Notre Dame surpasses both in this one. Kyle Kelly: Notre Dame 42, Florida State 13 After nearly securing a College Football Playoff berth last season, the Semi- noles have been awful in 2024. I can't see Florida State getting up for a game in South Bend in November with nothing to play for. Meanwhile, it's the opposite for Notre Dame. I expect the Irish to come out firing on all cylinders and the result representing their efforts. I like them to win big in primetime fashion, with the only touchdown surrendered coming late in the second half. Tyler Horka: Notre Dame 37, Florida State 7 It doesn't seem like that could actually be a conceivable final score be- tween these two storied football programs, oh, but it is. Florida State is that bad on both sides of the ball this season. The Seminoles have essentially nothing left to play for but pride, and there isn't a whole lot of that to go around in Tallahassee in 2024. This game isn't played down there, either. It's played in South Bend, at Notre Dame Stadium, where the Fighting Irish have been pretty good under the lights during the Marcus Freeman era lately. Notre Dame is also 4-0 coming out of a bye week during Freeman's tenure. His team wins big. Jack Soble: Notre Dame 42, Florida State 6 Who could've seen this coming? Florida State is, bar none, the worst team on Notre Dame's schedule. The Seminoles are "meh" at best on defense and absolutely atrocious on offense, although they do kick and punt very well. The Irish — which are 4-0 under Marcus Freeman immediately following bye weeks — should cruise past FSU with ease, drawing one step closer to a perfect season against a weak ACC slate. Redshirt junior defensive end Patrick Payton had 8 tackles for loss and 4 sacks through seven contests. PHOTO COURTESY FLORIDA STATE ATHLETICS Staff Predictions