Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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about what it took (or still takes) for a head coach to survive in the NFL: Do not lose three games in a row. Gibbs did lose his first five games as T the first-year head coach of the Wash- ington Redskins in 1980, but that was the honeymoon phase before winning his first Super Bowl in his third sea- son. Once you have been coaching several seasons in the NFL, a three- game losing streak creates an angst among the masses, a crisis in confi- dence, if not an erosion. There is a corollary to that at Notre Dame for its football head coaches: Do not go three years in a row without playing in a major/BCS bowl (and many would say winning it, too). • Even after opening with back- to-back BCS bids, Charlie Weis was ousted after a three-year run of 16-21 from 2007-09. • Ty Willingham had his moments from 2002-04, but no BCS bid (and a lack of toil on the recruiting trail) got him axed after just three seasons. • The erosion of confidence was there with Bob Davie when he didn't make it to the BCS in his first three years (1997-99), and his future was fragile even after getting there in 2000. • The same held true for Gerry Faust (1981-85), and "Dump Devine" bumper stickers were prominent in Dan Devine's third season when the 8-3 Irish refused a bowl bid in his first season (1975) and went only to the mi- nor Gator Bowl in his second (1976). This is not to infer or promote that Brian Kelly already is or should be on the hot seat in year three after back-to- back five-loss campaigns that yielded no BCS contention and immense frus- tration. The last thing this program needs is more instability. There should be no panic — but there is some angst that inevitably will ferment. That's because in the first five years of the Kelly regime (2010-14), the one I always viewed with the most discomfort was 2012 — the same way I did with Weis' third season in 2007 (the 3-9 train wreck). That's because the 2004 and 2005 Irish recruiting classes were easily the lowest rated in school history — but 54 FEBRUARY 2012 After stagnating in the second season of his ten- ure as a head coach at Notre Dame, Brian Kelly and the Irish face a daunting challenge in 2012 when reviewing the schedule and roster. PHOTO BY GREG OYSTER they wouldn't fully manifest until those two classes were juniors and seniors in 2007. Weis had brought himself some coaching equity with BCS bids his first two seasons thanks to a strong recruiting haul inked in 2003, led by quarterback Brady Quinn. Once most of that class departed, the program plummeted. In that vein, what is so disappoint- ing about the 2011 season is every- thing seemed to be set up for Kelly and Co. to build some equity or a nest egg for the rainy days that might oc- cur in 2012 (sort of like with Gene Chizik at Auburn in 2010 prior to re- tooling in 2011). There was a seasoned senior and former five-star quarterback (Dayne Crist), a senior class that was rated No. 2 in February 2008, a more navi- gable slate (the Irish were favored in the first 11 games), a new regime at reeling Michigan, probation-infested USC at home, momentum from a 4-0 finish in 2010 … how often do you have a confluence of so many poten- tial positive factors? The 2011 season was the one to make a BCS move and expand on Wait 'Til … The Year After Next? THE FIFTH QUARTER LOU SOMOGYI hree-time Super Bowl champion and Pro Football Hall of Fame coach Joe Gibbs had a postulate some of the on-field credibility begun in November 2010. Instead, the program remains a work in progress, almost uncomfort- able with any hint of prosperity — and now 2013 might appear to be a more likely time to make a BCS move than 2012. Next year you either have the status quo at quarterback or you are break- ing in someone new again and un- dergoing more growing pains. There could be major issues at cornerback and at wide receiver sans Michael Floyd (somewhat of a preview oc- curred in the fourth quarter versus Florida State), and the road games seem onerous, on paper anyway. However, by 2013, although Manti Te'o graduates, I like several factors: 1. The QB issues should be resolved (if not by then, forget it), and bur- geoning young targets like DaVaris Daniels, Deontay Greenberry and Ben Koyack can start hitting their stride. 2. Most players begin to flourish by their junior years, and that's when the defense with Aaron Lynch, Stephon Tuitt, Troy Niklas, et al should begin to near a crescendo, while the green secondary from 2012 also begins to jell. 3. Michigan (sans Denard Robin- son), MSU, USC (sanctions should kick in a little more, and no Matt Bar- kley) and Oklahoma are all at home (like that's been a big help the past two decades), and the back end of the schedule looks more favorable than in 2012, especially because by then Stan- ford should be returning to its mean. That's what it's come to these days with Notre Dame football's 18-year walk in the desert. It's no longer just "wait 'til next year!' but now it's, "Wait until the year after next!" Kelly and Co. will have the "ben- efit" of lowered expectations from the public in 2012, so 8-4 or 9-3 next year might be perceived as a pleasant surprise rather than another under- achieving campaign. Nevertheless, the "three-year itch" looms. ✦ Senior Editor Lou Somogyi has been at Blue & Gold Illustrated since July 1985. He can be reached at lsomogyi@blueandgold.com BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED