Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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www.BLUEANDGOLD.com MARCH 2017 87 S even years into the Brian Kelly era at Notre Dame, and on the heels of the most disappointing season in that span, the patience of the fan base has worn very thin. For many, the Irish seem no closer to contending for a national championship today than they have for most of the last two de- cades — several highs, too many lows and a program trajectory that hasn't consistently been pointed in the right direction. Possession efficiency data validates that sentiment. Back in December, I explored how Notre Dame's unusu- ally poor record in single-score games in 2016 tagged a mediocre team with a bad record. Those anomalies smooth themselves out over the course of several years, however. To set baseline expectations from which to project success the fol- lowing season, I lean heavily on results of the previous year but also include several other years of data to identify the current state of a program. Based on my research, the best in- dicator of next-year success based on previous results is produced from data over the previous five seasons, with special emphasis on the most recent data in that span. In the five-year span from 2012 to 2016, the Irish won 43 games and lost 21 against FBS opponents, a .672 winning percentage. That percentage ranks 20th among all FBS teams over the last five years and 15th among Power Five teams. For reference — and to highlight the gap between where Notre Dame is now and where it wants to be — the first, second and third-best teams in FBS winning percentage over the last five seasons also happen to be the win- ners of the three national champion- ships awarded thus far in the College Football Playoff era — Ohio State (60-6 vs. FBS opponents since 2012), Ala- bama (59-7) and Clemson (54-9). And what about program trajec- tory? My program ratings that take into account five years of efficiency data weighted for the most recent re- sults rank the Irish 20th overall among FBS teams. Several teams ranked ahead of Notre Dame in program efficiency have a worse five-year record, but a much more favorable trajectory. The Michi- gan Wolverines are a good example — 40-24 (.625) against FBS opponents over the last five seasons, but top-15 efficiency ratings in each of the last two seasons under head coach Jim Har- baugh. Teams that rank where the Irish cur- rently reside — 20th in my program efficiency ratings — generally perform to that level the following season, but there are exceptions. About seven percent of the time, teams in that range perform at an elite, top-5 level the following year, a list that includes the Washington Huskies that advanced to the 2016 playoff after posting the 25th-best program rating at the end of 2015. Another 17 percent of teams in Notre Dame's program-rating range perform to a very good, top-15 level the follow- ing season. On the other end of the spectrum, however, 27 percent of the teams in Notre Dame's program range perform at a level ranked outside the top 50 the following season. Based on program ratings alone, the chance the Irish won't immediately recover from the 2016 tailspin and will have another poor season is one in four. There is another way to model pro- jections from program ratings, and that's a fit test to the program trajecto- ries observed from all FBS teams over the last decade. Notre Dame's program rankings at the conclusion of each year of the Brian Kelly era — 24th after 2010, then 21st, 14th, 19th, 27th, eighth and 20th — can be compared with sets of program rat- ings from every other team. The five programs that matched Notre Dame's current program profile also had variable success. On the posi- tive side of the ledger, the 2016 Boise State Broncos (10-3 against FBS op- ponents) and 2013 USC Trojans (10-4) carried a similar program profile into those 10-win seasons that the Irish cur- rently have heading into 2017. On the negative side of the ledger, the 2015 South Carolina Gamecocks (3-8) and the 2012 Missouri Tigers (4- 7) headed into those seasons closely matching Notre Dame's current pro- gram trajectory as well. Averaging the results of the pro- gram trajectories most similar to Notre Dame today, a 7-5 regular season may be in store in 2017. There will be several other factors included in my final projections for next season, including an analysis of returning production and an evalua- tion of the strength of the opposition the Irish will face. But as a baseline projection, it's not a particularly opti- mistic outlook. ✦ IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU Brian Fremeau of ESPN/Football Outsiders has been a statistical analyst at Blue & Gold Illustrated since January 2015. He can be reached at bcfremeau@gmail.com. Predicting The Trajectory Of The Irish In the five years from 2012-16, Brian Kelly's teams have gone 43-21 against FBS opponents for a .672 winning percentage that ranks 15th among Power Five teams during that span. PHOTO BY BILL PANZICA