Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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34 AUGUST 2018 BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED T here are two main ingre- dients to evaluating a football team as a whole and then each unit within the team. The first is breaking down the game film, and the second is evaluating statistics. Using the right statistics is especially essential. Scoring more points is the obvious goal, and looking at points per game is useful; the same can be said of turnovers lost or gained. But there are other stats that present a much clearer picture of how a unit is performing. The objective here is to present the most important statistics to evaluate after each game and over the course of the season, begin- ning with the offense. Yards Per Play — Often the statistic mentioned as the most important right after scoring average is total yards — but total yards does not really tell how effec- tively a unit performs because there are so many factors beyond an of- fense's control that can impact total yards. The most critical offensive statistic after points is yards per play. Any- thing better than 6.0 yards per play is a quality number, while higher than 6.5 is strong and eclipsing 7.0 is elite. Only seven offenses nationally aver- aged over 7.0 yards per play in 2017. Offensive Efficiency — Yards per play is even more useful when viewed alongside an offense's overall efficiency. The Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) best measures this data. FEI notes the data is a "rating sys- tem based on opponent-adjusted drive efficiency." It removes items such as spiking the ball and drives during late-game blowout situations. It also takes into account the strength of the opposing defense. All 16 teams to make it to the Col- lege Football Playoff (CFP) in its history have ranked from No. 1 to No. 24 nationally in offensive effi- ciency. Only one team that played for the title from 2010-13 — prior to the start of the CFP — ranked lower than No. 24 in offensive efficiency. That was Notre Dame in 2012, with the Irish ranking No. 29. Only two national champions since 2010 (Alabama in 2015 and 2017) have ranked outside the top 10 in of- fensive efficiency. Notre Dame went 20-6 in the two seasons in which it ranked highest in offensive efficiency (2015 and 2017). Red Zone Touchdown Percentage — Getting any red zone score is im- portant, but turning those opportuni- ties into touchdowns is what teams truly want. Notre Dame has not been good at finding the end zone while inside the 20 during Brian Kelly's tenure, but 2017 was without ques- tion its best season. Last year, the Irish converted 76.1 percent of their red zone trips into touchdowns, which was almost 10 percentage points higher than their next-best season (66.7 in 2011). Any- thing around or above 70 percent is what an offense should aspire toward. All four playoff teams in 2017 con- verted at least 67.7 percent of their red zone trips into touchdowns. Rushing Yards Per Carry — Rush- ing for 200 yards per game is a good standard. Notre Dame is 30-5 (.857 win percentage) in games under Kelly in which it reached that mark, and it is 39-29 (.574) in games it failed to do so. But looking at more than just total rushing yards is important. Yards per rushing attempt is a highly vital data point to evaluate for each game and the season as a whole. Un- der Kelly, Notre Dame is 35-9 (.795) in games in which it av- eraged better than 5.0 yards per carry, 26-5 (.839) when it ran for at least 5.3 yards per tote and 19-3 (.864) when it eclipsed a 6.0-yard clip. Notre Dame's win per- centage is better in games in which it runs for at least 6.0 yards per carry than when it rushes for 200 yards or more. The Irish won at an even better clip (22-3, .880) when they posted an average of at least 5.5 yards per rush than when they totaled more than 200 yards on the ground. Rushing Efficiency — One can have an even better grasp of the effectiveness of a run game when yards per carry are viewed alongside rushing efficiency. An efficient run is any designed run play that gains a first down, goes for a touchdown or gets at least four yards. Notre Dame's rushing efficiency last season was 53.5 percent. To really get the run game going at a cham- pionship level, the Irish want to get closer to 60 percent. Passing Yards Per Attempt — To- tal yards and completion percentage often get the majority of the focus, but the first stat to look at when eval- uating the pass game is the yards per attempt average. It takes everything into account outside of interceptions. The higher a completion percentage and the more big gains a team throw throws for, the higher its yards per attempt. Yards per attempt also incor- porates efficiency. Example: Tony Rice completed "only" 7 of 13 for the Irish in the 1989 Fiesta Bowl win — but for 213 yards (16.4 yards per attempt). A target number for this statistic is a minimum of 8.0 yards per attempt. ✦ Statistics To Watch For The Irish Offense In 2018 CLOSER LOOK BRYAN DRISKELL Bryan Driskell has been a football analyst for Blue & Gold Illustrated since April 2015. He can be reached at bdriskell@blueandgold.com. Notre Dame is 30‑5 under head coach Brian Kelly when rushing for at least 200 yards, but an even better metric for success is yards per rush. PHOTO BY JOE RAYMOND