Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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62 AUGUST 2018 BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED E very couple of years or so, a column I wrote in Janu‑ ary 1986 is reviewed to see how applicable it is to the present. Back then, Lou Holtz was in his second month on the job after Notre Dame had gone through the Gerry Faust era from 1981‑85 in which it was 30‑26‑1. Having coached only in the high school ranks, Faust opened his career with a 5‑6 mark and ended it 5‑6 as well. None of his teams finished in the final rankings. What made his era so stun‑ ning is in the previous 17 years from 1964‑80, Notre Dame 12 times finished in the Associ‑ ated Press top 10, highlighted by three consensus national titles (1966, 1973 and 1977) while sharing a fourth (1964) and missing by a whisker in 1970. During the Faust era there were some "wow, where did that come from?" moments, including upset‑ ting No. 1 Pitt in 1982, and in 1984 winning at SEC champ LSU (30‑22) and at Pac‑10 champ USC (19‑7), the latter for the first time in 18 years. What also ensued from that five‑ year stretch was some sentiment that Notre Dame would rise again but never be what it once was in the 1940s, or even the aforementioned 1964‑80 stretch. The landscape had changed in college football, with the power base shifting more to the Sun Belt regions, scholarship numbers were a little lower and the Fighting Irish schedules were becoming more treacherous. Yet enough life was shown even in the Faust era that abandoning all op‑ timism shouldn't occur either. Thus, I decided the following "Five‑Year Standard" could apply to someone as proven and well qualified as Holtz: • Over a five‑year stretch, a "clunker year" can happen to any‑ one. For an 11‑game regular season back then, that meant 7‑4 or 6‑5. Even Knute Rockne and Frank Leahy, who own the two best winning percent‑ ages in college football history, had 5‑4 and 4‑4‑1 finishes in the latter part of their careers. If it can happen to them, it can happen to anyone. • Two top‑11 to top‑25 type fin‑ ishes, meaning the 9‑3 and 8‑4 area with a minor bowl bid. • Two top‑10 finishes over those five years, with invitations to a major bowl — and win at least one of them. • In one of those two top‑10 years over five seasons, hopefully one bona fide national title contender. My defi‑ nition for that was "on the last day of the regular season, Notre Dame is legitimately in the hunt to compete for No. 1." After a 13‑10 start his first two sea‑ sons, Holtz went well beyond that standard during the six‑year stretch from 1988‑93, highlighted by a 5‑1 major bowl record, five top‑10 fin‑ ishes and a national title (with two near misses). Nevertheless, the last five years of his tenure (1992‑96) met the exact criteria we had set: • There was the 6‑5‑1 clunker in 1994. • There were top‑25 finishes in 1995 (No. 12) and 1996 (No. 18). • There were two top‑10 finishes in 1992 (No. 4) and 1993 (No. 2) — and bona fide national title contention on the last day of the regular season in 1993. FAST FORWARD TO 2018 Are the standards from January 1986 still realistic and applicable to ninth‑year head coach Brian Kelly? I n t h e 1 5 y e a r s f ro m 1997‑2011, the operation had become a shell of itself. In 10 of those 15 seasons Notre Dame lost at least five games, and in six of them it was either at or under .500. The "five‑minute plan" un‑ der Kelly, when hired in De‑ cember 2009, was to return to the glory days — and it seemed plausible after a 12‑0 regular season and No. 1 ranking in only his third sea‑ son (2012). Beginning with that cam‑ paign we thought the 1986 s t a n d a rd s — c o m b i n e d with the commitment and resources poured in by the university to the football operation — were once again in play. Let's take the five‑year period from 2012‑16. • T h e re w a s d e f i n i t e l y t h e "clunker" in 2016 — but that 4‑8 fin‑ ish was beyond ridiculous and wor‑ thy of dismissal even if 2012 had not happened. • There were top‑25 finishes in 2013 (No. 20) and in 2015 (No. 11). • There were two major bowl and/ or national title appearances (2012 and 2015), although the Irish won neither. • In one of those seasons Notre Dame actually played for the na‑ tional title (2012), and in another it was in the hunt on the last day of the regular season (10‑1 in 2015). Not quite where you want to be — but not way off either, including a No. 11 finish to go with a No. 4. Now, let's see what the "new" five‑ year cycle under Kelly holds from 2017‑21 (his current contract runs through 2021, if he opts to go that far). So far he has one 10‑3 season and No. 11 finish — but by year nine another clunker is far less acceptable. Making the College Football Play‑ off sometime by or before the end of 2021 needs to be doable. If not, the quest begins anew. ✦ A Five-Year Standard Revisited THE FIFTH QUARTER LOU SOMOGYI Senior Editor Lou Somogyi has been at Blue & Gold Illustrated since July 1985. He can be reached at lsomogyi@blueandgold.com Lou Holtz (right) had five top-10 finishes in the six years from 1988-93, but Notre Dame has had only two since 1994 — most recently in 2012 under Brian Kelly (left). PHOTO BY JOE RAYMOND