The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports
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MARCH 2023 THE WOLVERINE 81 E ven though Michigan basketball earned its fifth consecutive trip to the Sweet 16 last season, the Wol- verines are having their second straight underperforming regular-season cam- paign this year. Last season, Michigan nearly failed to make the NCAA Tournament despite be- ing ranked sixth in the Associated Press preseason poll. The Wolverines were an 11 seed that was fortunate to just avoid the First Four because their record was only 17-14. Many concerns arose over the course of that season, but those issues were largely glossed over after Michigan recorded two upsets on such a sweet note. There has been little gloss this sea- son. Even after an 84-72 victory against in-state rival Michigan State on Feb. 18, Michigan still has only a 15-12 record, is ranked 49th on KenPom and is well out- side the NCAA Tournament bubble. U-M probably needs to post at least four more wins to break in through the back door, but with only four regular-season con- tests remaining, and three on the road against schools in the KenPom top 30, it is a longshot that Michigan will be dancing. Given this situation, there is no ques- tion that the Wolverines have backslid in the last two seasons after they were the Big Ten regular-season champions and one of the best teams in the country in 2020-21. The question then is what has caused this drop-off during this short span. There are many contributing factors, such as subpar or unlucky late-game ex- ecution and unexpected turnover or inju- ries at the point guard position. But one that seems to rise above the rest — one not so unlucky or unexpected — is the Wolverines' defensive decline on the wings. At the end of the John Beilein era, Mich- igan had transformed into a defensive juggernaut. The Wolverines were third in adjusted defensive efficiency (90.5) in 2017-18 and second (86.2) in 2018-19. That carried over into the first two years of head coach Juwan Howard's tenure. Af- ter a little dip to 28th (93.0) in 2019-20, Michigan rebounded back to fourth (87.9) in 2020-21. However, Michigan's defense has fallen off the past two years. The Wolverines were 74th in adjusted defensive efficiency last season (97.2) and 72nd this season (99.2). A team can still be championship-cal- iber with a defense this average but only with an elite offense. Although Michi- gan's offenses have been relatively con- sistent under Howard, that level has not been elite. Thus, Michigan needs to find a way to repair its defense, and a huge source of the problem is its shooting defense, particularly two-point shooting defense. From 2017-18 to 2020-21, Michigan was no worse than 60th in two-point shoot- ing defense. Last season, the Wolverines were an abysmal 203rd (50.4 percent), and although they are better this year, they are still only 93rd (48.3 percent). This regression seems to mostly stem from Michigan's lack of defensive stal- warts on the wing. In the last two sea- sons of Beilein's tenure and the first two of Howard's, Michigan had lockdown wing defenders. Charles Matthews was a defensive force during his time in Ann Arbor, and after he graduated, Franz Wag- ner and Isaiah Livers displayed incredible length, agility and instincts on the defen- sive end. This was reflected in their defensive box plus/minus (DBPM), which measures the number of defensive points per 100 possessions a player contributes above a league-average player. Matthews' DBPM rating was 3.7, Wagner's was 6.1 and Liv- ers' was 3.6. The Wolverines have not had that guy on the wing the past two seasons. Last year, Caleb Houstan was so-so defen- sively and had a DBPM of 1.2. This year, Jett Howard has been lost on defense (0.8 DBPM), neither Joey Baker's nor Ter- rance Williams' physical toughness has translated into above-average defensive play (1.9 and 1.0 DBPM, respectively) and Will Tschetter has been physically over- matched (0.9 DBPM). Howard has tried to fill in the gap by using two-big lineups, pairing Moussa Diabate with Dickinson last season and Tarris Reed Jr. with him this season to some success. Reed (3.7 DBPM) has shown excellent defensive effort with his ability on the glass and to deter shots when paired with Dickinson (2.5 DBPM). But Reed has been put in a tough spot when asked to cover much quicker forwards. Barring a miraculous run, Michigan is not going to find that answer this season and sneak into another NCAA Tourna- ment. But if they want to get back into the dance next season, the Wolverines will need to find at least one defensive stopper on the wing. If Jett Howard returns for his sophomore season, maybe another year of experience could do him wonders on defense. Maybe a freshman reserve such as Youssef Khayat shows defensive prom- ise in a breakout year. Or maybe Howard and his staff can bring in someone via the transfer portal who fits that bill. Regardless of how it is done, Michigan needs to have an excellent defender on the wing for next season. Otherwise, the defense will continue to lag, and so will the program's success. ❏ INSIDE THE NUMBERS DREW HALLETT The Sting of Needing a Defensive Wing Staff writer Drew Hallett has covered Michigan athletics since 2013. Contact him at drew.c.hallett@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @DrewCHallett. Michigan's defense has fallen off the past two years. After ranking fourth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (87.9) in 2020- 21, the Wolverines were 74th last season (97.2) and are 72nd this season (99.2). PHOTO BY LON HORWEDEL