Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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38 SEPT. 9, 2023 BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED GAME PREVIEW: NORTH CAROLINA STATE BY TYLER HORKA NC STATE RUNNING GAME VS. NOTRE DAME RUN DEFENSE If you want to know more about a team's running game and whether or not it's getting the job done, start with Sports Info Solutions' "points earned per play" metric. There is one for the running game, and one for the passing game. If you're a golfer, think of it like strokes earned. You either gain strokes on the field in certain areas — driving, approach, putting — or you lose strokes to the other players in those facets. NC State lost .033 points per play every time it ran the ball in 2022. That ranked 113th in the FBS. For reference, Texas and Doak Walker Award winner Bijan Robinson led the country in points earned per play in the running game at positive .206. Arkansas led the country with total points earned on the ground at 104.89. NC State, mean- while, lost 14.66 points in the running game throughout the course of the season. That was No. 111 in the country. Two of the three running backs NC State leaned on the most in 2022 are back in 2023. Jordan Hous- ton and Michael Allen combined for 189 carries last year. None of those rushes ended up in the end zone. Houston averaged a modest 4.0 yards per carry on 136 attempts. Allen was at 5.1 yards per tote on 53 tries. Notre Dame should be able to corral those rushers, especially against an NC State team that ranked 99th in points above average in run-block- ing last year. NC State was 13.55 points below average in run-blocking according to SIS. Advantage: Notre Dame NC STATE PASSING GAME VS. NOTRE DAME PASS DEFENSE This is an interesting category. The NC State pass- ing attack should look a lot different with a new offensive coordinator in Robert Anae and a new quarterback in Brennan Armstrong. The Wolfpack also brought in Rice transfer Bradley Rozner to bol- ster the wide receiver corps. Rozner is a Biletnikoff Award watch list member who has 101 catches, 1,676 receiving yards and 15 touchdowns in his career. Ten of those scores came in 2022. This all comes down to whether or not Anae can get Armstrong to look like he did in 2021 when the two were paired up together at Virginia. Armstrong threw 417 catchable passes on 499 total attempts that year according to SIS. That was good for a rate of 86.4 percent, which ranked 31st in the country. His catchable ball percentage plummeted to 79.3 percent without Anae as his offensive coordinator in 2022. That ranked No. 142 nationally. Armstrong is a different signal-caller when Anae is around. Is the combination of the two enough to get the best of a Notre Dame secondary led by preseason All-American Benjamin Morrison and team captain Cam Hart at cornerback, though? Sophomore Jaden Mickey and freshman Christian Gray are not slouches as Notre Dame's No. 3 and 4 corners, either. This will surely be Notre Dame's toughest test defending the pass in the first three games of the season. Armstrong might make a few plays that Navy and Tennessee State's quarterbacks simply could not. But when it comes down to it, Notre Dame's defensive personnel on the back end should be good enough to hold up against NC State's new-look passing attack. Advantage: Notre Dame NOTRE DAME RUNNING GAME VS. NC STATE RUN DEFENSE NC State allowed the 11th fewest rushing yards in the FBS in 2022. The Wolfpack nearly reached the rare air of teams that gave up less than 100 yards per game. The number was 100.69. That'll be tough to match in 2023. Top tackler Drake Thomas is no longer with the program. He had 101 total stops and 19 tackles for loss last year. Both of those were team highs. Linebacker Isaiah Moore is gone as well. He had 82 total tackles and 15 tackles for loss. Payton Wilson, who had 82 total tackles and 12.5 tackles for loss, is back though. He's the new face of the lineback- ing contingent. NC State had the best stuff percentage — mean- ing hitting ball carriers at or behind the line of scrimmage — in the country in 2022 at 28.5 per- cent. As much as linebackers can help against the run, that tends to fall on the defensive line. NC State has veterans returning across the board in defensive ends Davin Vann and Savion Jackson and tackle C.J. Clark. It feels like NC State caught some lightning in a On PaPer Bradley Rozner, a transfer from Rice, is a Biletnikoff Award watch list member and entered the 2023 season with 101 career receptions for 1,676 yards and 15 touchdowns. PHOTO COURTESY NC STATE ATHLETICS