The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports
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NOVEMBER 2023 ❱ THE WOLVERINE 65 M ichigan ain't played nobody." This has been the theme of most conversations about Michigan football through its first seven games. People see that Michigan is 7-0. But many are also quick to point out that the Wolverines have not played a formida- ble opponent to date. None of the Wol- verines' first seven foes are in the top 50 of SP+. Rutgers is the highest at No. 52. Jeff Sagarin's ratings are essentially in agreement, listing the Scarlet Knights as Michigan's toughest opponent so far with a rank of 50. Therefore, these critics are hesitant to anoint Michigan as the nation's best team until U-M beats a quality oppo- nent. It is true Michigan has not yet been tested. But it is also true Michigan has pummeled everybody, even more so than most might realize. On the surface, it may seem that Michigan has not been as dominant as the nation's best team should be, par- ticularly on offense and particularly early in the season. The Wolverines posted no more than 35 points in their first four contests — all at home and three against Group of Five programs — and as of Oct. 17, the Wolverines were ranked only 54th in total yards per game (413.7), 41st in rushing yards per out- ing (182.0) and tied for 70th in passing yards per contest (231.7). This would not seem to be the type of offense that a team contending for a national title would have. However, the reason why Michigan's offensive numbers seem average on the surface is because of its pace of play. The Wolverines are not a tempo team, looking to squeeze in as many plays as possible to pull away from an opponent. In fact, they are the exact opposite. They instead go at a snail's pace. They are tied for 124th out of 133 FBS schools in offensive plays per game (61.3) and second to last in seconds per play (31.3) — faster than only service academy Air Force. With fewer offensive snaps than al- most every other team in the country, Michigan has fewer opportunities to amass the volume of offensive stats that many other teams have accumulated. Yet, when the numbers are broken down further, it becomes quite clear just how dominant Michigan has been on both offense and defense. Michigan leads the country in net points per drive (plus 3.79), offensive points per drive (4.34), and defensive points per drive (0.55). U-M has a whopping lead in net points per drive. The gap between Michigan and second-place Penn State (plus 2.51) is greater than the gap be- tween PSU and 17th-place Oregon State (plus 1.36). These stats better represent a team's performance on the field than per-game stats because they account for teams playing at different speeds and do not let that influence the numbers. A l t h o u g h t h e p o i n ts - p e r- d r ive stat does not consider the quality of a team's opponents or strength of sched- ule, Michigan is still first in many other metrics that do. The Wolverines are first in SP+, which is a tempo- and opponent-ad- justed measure of college football ef- ficiency. They are also first in Sagarin and Team Rankings, both of which are predictive projections of team quality. On top of that, Michigan has been beating its opponents in a manner that has not been done in a very long time. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Wolverines are the first team in the AP poll era (since 1936) to score 30 or more points and allow 10 or fewer points in each of its first seven games of a season. So yes, Michigan has played an easier schedule — although U-M's strength of schedule (78th) is about the same as Penn State's (77th) and harder than Georgia's (93rd) according to Sagarin. But no other team in decades has done what U-M is doing. The Wolverines do not need to change what they are doing — nor do they want to — to be the nation's top team. Their slow, constricting pace of play is exactly the style that suits them best. Although it may hamper quarterback J.J. McCarthy's Heisman campaign, it puts them in the greatest position to win a national championship. Fewer plays mean less chance of injury for McCar- thy or running back Blake Corum, who is averaging 14.8 carries per conference game in 2023 after averaging 23.7 in 2022 before suffering a season-ending knee injury. Fewer plays also mean more rest for Michigan's defense. So far, only four Wolverine defenders have played more than 200 snaps through seven contests this season, and none are on the defen- sive line. On the other hand, Ohio State has 11 defenders who have played more than 200 snaps through six contests, includ- ing three defensive linemen. Michigan is going to be very fresh come November. And when November comes, with matches at PSU and versus OSU on deck, the Wolverines will be ready to prove to the doubters that they have been this dominant the whole time. ❑ INSIDE THE NUMBERS ❱ DREW HALLETT U-M's Pace Hides Its True Dominance Michigan has been dominant on both sides of the ball. Through Week 7, the Wolverines led the country in net points per drive (plus 3.79), offensive points per drive (4.34), and defen- sive points per drive (0.55). PHOTO BY LON HORWEDEL Staff writer Drew Hallett has covered Michigan athletics since 2013. Contact him at drew.c.hallett@gmail.com and follow him on X (Twitter) @DrewCHallett. "