Penn State Sports Magazine
Issue link: https://comanpub.uberflip.com/i/1520787
J U N E / J U L Y 2 0 2 4 5 W W W . B L U E W H I T E O N L I N E . C O M I n my head, the words read like finger- nails on a chalkboard. Part of a July 1, 2016, email sent to Matt Herb, our magazine editor at Blue White Illus- trated, the six-paragraph prediction for James Franklin's third season at Penn State begins as follows: "This is one of the more challenging preseason predictions I can remember making in my time at BWI following an offseason of change and new direction for the Nittany Lions football program." Weaving my way through the pos- sibilities, I questioned the impact of a new offensive coordinator and the qual- ity of play in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Failing to find conviction in my offseason analysis for the team coming out of its 7-6 campaign in 2015, I found myself unwilling and unable to let incremental improvements translate to the field. "Still a year away from being a truly healthy program," I wrote, "another 7-5 season seems likely." We all know what happened next. Undeterred by a 2-2 start that in- cluded a road loss to Pittsburgh and a 49-10 blowout at No. 4 Michigan, Penn State went on to win the Big Ten title. After falling hard in Ann Arbor, the Lions won their next nine games. They upset No. 2 Ohio State with one of the program's all-time most iconic plays — Grant Haley's game-winning, 60-yard touchdown return of a blocked field goal attempt. And once they re- turned to the Top 25, they breezed to wins by two or more touchdowns in their final five games of the regular sea- son. By the time PSU upset No. 6 Wiscon- sin in the Big Ten Championship Game, even the most optimistic preseason prognostications had fallen short. Penn State shattered expectations en route to its first Rose Bowl bid since 2008, and my preseason misgivings proved largely unwarranted. This might seem like the natural point at which to draw comparisons between that team and the one Penn State is poised to field in 2024. It is not. Despite the anticipation for the Nit- tany Lions this fall, the notion of making a preseason pick is fraught with land- mines. The team has new coordinators for all three facets of the game. Andy Kotel- nicki, Tom Allen and Justin Lustig have generated the requisite enthusiasm for the changes they plan to bring to the Nittany Lions' offense, defense and special teams, respectively. But even in 2016, first-year offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead and his defensive counter- part, Brent Pry, needed time before their moves began yielding results. There are obvious personnel strengths, weaknesses, and everything in between, that must be taken into account. Despite the loss of both starting de- fensive ends, as well as four key defensive backs and a veteran linebacker, Penn State's defense appears to be in reload mode. On the offensive side of the ball, junior running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen again form the founda- tion of a unit with great potential. But can quarterback Drew Allar leap from a solid sophomore season to an undeniably great year as a junior? Are the Nittany Lions' wide receivers explosive enough to offset KeAndre Lambert-Smith's recent exit via the transfer portal? And after seeing three offensive linemen drafted, the most at PSU since 1993, will the Li- ons be able to rebuild up front? Maybe most critically, none of the internal "what-ifs" address the larger forces at work. In a college football land- scape that has radically transformed through the past four years, the 2024 season will be, by orders of magnitude, unlike any other before it. This fall, Penn State will avoid Michi- gan for the first time since 2013. During a season in which the Wolverines are ex- pected to take something of a step back following their national championship, the Nittany Lions would likely prefer to have that tilt on their slate. Instead, they will again take on Ohio State, an expected title contender. The Buckeyes have won the past seven games in this series and 11 of the past 12. With the Big Ten having expanded by four teams and eliminated its divisional structure, the rhythm and predictability of recent seasons is no more. Instead, Penn State will exchange regular Big Ten East Division foes Indiana, Michigan, Rutgers and Michigan State for the likes of UCLA, USC and Washington. Further, the College Football Playoff expansion from four to 12 teams upends the paradigm. The top dozen teams in last year's final CFP rankings following the conference championship weekend included five teams with two losses and four more with one loss. Throw in a highly unusual two off dates in the first seven weeks of the season, and the vari- ables are more plentiful than in any other season in Penn State's recent history. Given all that upheaval, the Lions' playoff aspirations aren't the only daunting challenge at hand. Making a prediction one way or the other is going to be just as difficult. ■ Penn State's playoff aspirations in 2024 will depend in part on how junior quarterback Drew Allar performs in his second season as the team's starter. PHOTO BY STEVE MANUEL O P I N I O N NATE BAUER N AT E . B A U E R @ O N 3 . C O M HOT READ With So Many Variables, Lions' Outlook Is Hard To Gauge