Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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4 SEPT. 7, 2024 BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED T hird-year Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman shares a common theme each preseason into how fragile and fleeting a football season can be. "I just reminded our players that you work about 300 days a year for 12 guar- anteed opportunities," Freeman shared in the days leading up to the season opener at Texas A&M. In other words, for every one of the 12 regular-season games Notre Dame is guaranteed to play this season, about 25 days of practice and preparation by cal- endar ratio went into each one. Starting Saturday against Northern Illinois, six of those 12 opportunities will come at Notre Dame Stadium. And given the lack of power among the 2024 Irish opponents at home, Notre Dame better beat all six of them if it hopes to enter the 12-team playoff conversation this postseason. With a full, 12-game regular-season schedule that ranks only about 55th nationally in strength and no conference champion- ship game mulligan, there is no room for error — especially at home. Former Irish head coach Brian Kelly was masterful at protecting his house. In fact, between a defeat to No. 15 Georgia in 2017 and a loss to No. 7 Cin- cinnati in 2021, Kelly built a 26-game home winning streak — a stretch that included three straight seasons (2018- 20) without a loss at Notre Dame Sta- dium, which precipitated Irish playoff appearances in 2018 and 2020 in the four-team format. For Freeman, he has yet to record an undefeated season at home, losing to Marshall and Stanford in 2022 and Ohio State last season. Freeman is 9-3 at Notre Dame Stadium during his first two seasons — 4-2 in 2022 and 5-1 last year — but no such home hiccups will be allowed in 2024. A loss to the Huskies this weekend or against any of the other five future op- ponents at home — Miami (Ohio), Lou- isville, Stanford, Florida State, Virginia — and any Irish playoff hopes likely will be all but dashed. With Florida State the only Notre Dame home opponent ranked in the preseason Associated Press Top 25, this 2024 home schedule might be consid- ered one of the weakest slates the Irish have played in at least a decade. Considering the Seminoles, who were favored by 11 points versus Geor- gia Tech, were promptly upset by the Yellow Jackets on Aug. 24 in their sea- son opener in Ireland, that "circle the date" with FSU is already tarnished. With Notre Dame expected to be a pro- hibitive favorite in each of its six home games, don't expect the Playoff Selec- tion Committee to be overly forgiving to an independent team that suffered an upset loss on its own turf. Under Kelly, Notre Dame went unde- feated at home during its playoff runs in 2018 and 2020. In contrast, Kelly's Irish went 11-1 during the regular season in 2021, and posted some quality wins along the way: Florida State, Wisconsin, USC, North Carolina and others. But with a home loss to No. 7 Cincinnati that season, Notre Dame was left out of the four- team playoff mix. Along with going undefeated at home, ND Nation also needs to root for the 12 Irish opponents to win this season, to help boost Notre Dame's postseason résumé. If too many of Texas A&M, Florida State, Louisville and USC — the four highest-profile opponents on the Irish schedule — don't perform well the rest of this season, even a one-loss Irish team could sweat out Selection Sunday Dec. 8. Two losses? Forget about it. Logic suggests that a playoff ex- pansion to 12 teams will only increase Notre Dame's odds of inclusion, and it very well could. But the Irish program is in a unique place compared to the other Power Four programs because an at-large invite is its only option for inclusion. There is no automatic berth for Notre Dame. Those are reserved for the four highest-ranked conference champions. So, when it comes time to fill in its playoff bracket, how will the selection committee compare the losers of con- ference championship games to an in- dependent Irish team? Under the four- team format, losers of the conference championship games were routinely left out — see Georgia and Oregon from last season. But given the lack of oomph on the 2024 Irish schedule, especially at home, it's easy to imagine those power con- ference runners-up after this season — even with multiple losses — will be slot- ted before an inclusion debate would even begin over an independent Irish team. In a nutshell, protect your house. Because, without winning all six home games beginning this weekend with Northern Illinois, there is no clear play- off path for Notre Dame. ✦ Head coach Marcus Freeman was 9-3 at Notre Dame Stadium during his first two seasons in charge. The Irish lost to Marshall and Stanford in 2022, and fell to Ohio State in 2023 — but no such home hiccups will be allowed in 2024. PHOTO BY CHAD WEAVER Playoff Hopes Hinge On An Undefeated Home Season Todd D. Burlage has been a writer for Blue & Gold Illustrated since July 2005. He can be reached at tburlage@blueandgold.com UPON FURTHER REVIEW TODD D. BURLAGE