Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
Issue link: https://comanpub.uberflip.com/i/219972
Under the Dome Charting The Irish Great Rushing Divide Heading into a physical battle against Stanford, Irish head coach Brian Kelly said his team doesn't have to stick to the ground game to establish physical dominance. But no statistic has been a more clear indicator between winning and losing in Kelly's first 50 games at Notre Dame than how often he chose to run the ball. The Irish averaged 34.5 rushing attempts per game since 2010 prior to the Stanford game. They exceeded that number in 25 games and won 24 of them (96 percent). In the 25 games when they rushed less than 34.5 times, they won 12 times (48 percent). Kelly has never won a game in South Bend when his backs have carried the ball less than 29 times. In the last 20 games when they have carried 30 or more times, the Irish have not lost. The number of carries has been more important, statistically speaking, than how many yards they garnered. Notre Dame averaged 158.3 rushing yards in its first 50 games under Kelly. The Irish are 19-2 in games when they run for more than that and 17-12 when they don't. As always in statistics, correlation doesn't imply causation. Teams run the ball more when they have the lead. Winning leads to running as much as running leads to winning. Nonetheless, establishing a rushing game early has a proven track record of success for Kelly at Notre Dame. Carries Games Wins (%) Yardage Games Wins (%) Less than 20 3 0 (0.0) Less than 50 3 0 (0.0) 20-29 8 2 (25.0) 51-100 9 5 (55.5) 30-34 14 10 (71.4) 101-150 14 10 (71.4) 35-39 13 12 (92.3) 151-200 11 9 (81.8) 40-49 10 10 (100.0) 201-250 7 6 (85.7) More than 50 2 2 (100.0) More than 250 6 6 (100.0) Knock It Down Or Intercept It? As time expired in the first half of Notre Dame's 23-13 win over BYU, senior safety Austin Collinsworth intercepted Cougars quarterback Taysom Hill's Hail Mary heave into the end zone. Football purists might argue that the right play is to knock the ball down in such an instance rather than risk missing the interception and having it deflected into the arms of a nearby receiver. Look no further than Georgia's heartbreaking loss to Auburn Nov. 16. With the Bulldogs leading 38-37 with 36 seconds remaining and the Tigers desperate on fourth-and-18, a pair of Georgia defenders attempted to grab an interception rather than knock quarterback Nick Marshall's pass to the ground. Both missed the turnover and tipped the ball into the arms of Auburn receiver Ricardo Louis, who sprinted for the game-winning touchdown on the 73-yard play. In Collinsworth's situation against BYU, however, the safer bet was the one the senior chose. "If it's a clean catch and you have a clean opportunity, we catch the football," head coach Brian Kelly said. "In our estimation, we feel like he made the right decision in that situation. … We don't want him batting the football in that situation if he feels like he's got a clean catch." Of course, if there's one school that should never lose on a "Hail Mary," it's Our Lady's.