Blue and Gold Illustrated

Nov. 9, 2015 Issue

Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football

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IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU nationally in 2015. The highest explosive drive rate previously recorded by the Irish in the last five seasons was only 17 per‑ cent. Explosive drive rates have been a key for top teams in recent years. Power Five conference teams that ranked in the top 10 for explosive drive rate in 2014 included the two national championship game par‑ ticipants — Ohio State and Oregon — and averaged 10 Football Bowl Subdivisions wins. The defense had a bit of trouble stopping opponent explosive drives themselves during the first seven contests, allowing 10 yards per play on 15 percent of opponent posses‑ sions. Those numbers are skewed in part due to the offenses Notre Dame has faced. The Irish have played the ninth‑ toughest set of opposing offenses in the nation through the first seven weeks of the season, and three con‑ secutive opponents in that stretch (Clemson, Navy and USC) rank among the top 15 in opponent‑ad‑ justed offensive efficiency. With the exception of Stanford, though, the final month of the Irish schedule doesn't include any highly efficient offenses. A key data point to track in the home stretch is the Irish defense boom‑or‑bust drive rate. Notre Dame is forcing three‑and‑outs on 38 per‑ cent of opponent non‑garbage drives, the 15th highest rate in the nation. But once opponents get a first down, they are scoring touchdowns on 39 percent of those possessions, well above the national average. That combination of either big stops or frequent scores is likely an effect of an aggressive defensive phi‑ losophy, and would be too costly if the Irish didn't pair it with an elite offense. Of the 15 defenses with the highest boom‑or‑bust drive rate through seven weeks, Notre Dame and North Carolina State are the only two teams with a winning record. The boom‑or‑bust drive rate has helped fuel dominant bursts of pos‑ session success for Notre Dame, of course. I've been tracking team's ability to string together consecutive winning possessions — stop on de‑ fense, score on offense, stop, score, etc. — and Notre Dame has been one of the nation's best this year in this category. Notre Dame has had 10 sequences in its first seven games in which it has coupled at least four consecutive possession wins together, third most nationally. Even if the Irish haven't been consistent on defense, they've routinely taken advantage of defen‑ sive stops with each opportunity. Notre Dame's drive to the 2012 na‑ tional championship game was the last time the Irish posted a winning record over its final month of the sea‑ son. This year 's offensive and de‑ fensive efficiency numbers suggest a strong finish is in store once again. ✦ Brian Fremeau of ESPN/Football Outsiders has been a statistical analyst at Blue & Gold Illustrated since January 2015. He can be reached at bcfremeau@gmail.com.

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