Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU are interesting questions, which the format of spring practices and limited full‑contact, full‑speed drills may not be best able to resolve. Another interesting question is whether limiting turnovers should be as important as generating them on defense. Both have an impact on generating or forfeiting net turnover value. Would either be more valuable than the other for the Irish? There were 21 teams that won at least 10 games against Football Bowl Subdi‑ vision opponents last season, including Notre Dame. The other 20 teams gen‑ erated an average of 29.4 points of net scoring value on turnovers. The Irish were the worst among the group, ending the year with a nega‑ tive 32.9 net scoring value deficit due to turnovers. When we break that net scoring value into its components, the Irish offense (and special teams receiv‑ ing units) lost a total of 77.1 points of scoring value and the Irish defense (plus special teams kicking units) gen‑ erated a total of 44.2 points of scoring value. This breakdown may not be too shocking for Irish fans, though it is a painful reminder of the opportunities lost in what otherwise was a very ex‑ citing season. It turns out the inability of the de‑ fense to generate turnovers is of greater concern than the offense sur‑ rendering them. The four teams se‑ lected to the playoff last season — Clemson, Alabama, Michigan State and Oklahoma — were each on the positive side of the ledger in net turn‑ over value. But they weren't immune to turning the ball over. Those four teams lost an average of 58.2 points of scoring value last year, an 18.9‑point difference from Notre Dame's total. On the other hand, those teams generated an average of 94.2 points of scoring value on opponent turnovers, a difference of 50 points from Notre Dame's total generated defensively. Of the 21 teams that won at least 10 contests versus FBS opponents last season, none forced fewer opponent turnovers and generated less value from those opponent turnovers than the Irish. On average, that group generated twice as much turnover value on opponent turnovers than did Notre Dame, equivalent to 3.4 points per game. That's a deficit that must be closed, and that's a defensive issue not an offensive one. There have been 11 losses in the Kelly era in which Notre Dame's net turnover deficit was greater than the margin of defeat. Last year, 3.4 more points in scoring value generated by opponent turnovers would have made a difference in victory or defeat only twice (the aforementioned losses to the Tigers and Cardinal). While the Irish set their sights on more consistently contending for post‑ season glory, that leap forward may be the critical difference. ✦ Brian Fremeau of ESPN/Football Outsiders has been a statistical analyst at Blue & Gold Illustrated since January 2015. He can be reached at bcfremeau@gmail.com.