Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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20 NOV. 14, 2016 BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED I t has been a frustrating and disappointing season for the Notre Dame football program and its fans, and special teams play has been particularly costly. On Sept. 17, the Irish led Michigan State in the first quar- ter by seven points and forced a three-and-out. But the ensu- ing punt return was botched, handing the ball back to MSU and igniting the start of a 36-0 run for the Spartans that led to Notre Dame's second loss of the season. A week later, Duke returned a kickoff 96 yards for a touchdown and eked out a three-point vic- tory against the Irish. In terrible conditions against North Caro- lina State Oct. 8, the lone touch- down of the game was scored on a blocked punt by the Wolfpack and returned for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. And against Miami Oct. 29, the Irish allowed an onside kick and mishandled a pair of punt re- turns, plays that nearly cost Notre Dame the game. One feature of the work I do with possession efficiency data is to dis- tribute the value of scoring margins and deficits to the offense, defense and special teams units that contrib- ute to that value. Against Michigan State, Duke, North Carolina State and Miami, the Irish went 1-3 and were outscored 111-96. The cost of special teams miscues in those four games adds up to a total of 24 points. Had the Irish played special teams evenly in those games, they would have been no worse than 2-2 and may very well have gone 3-1 or 4-0. Through the first eight games of the 2016 season, the Irish are ranked 86th overall in my Special Teams Ef- ficiency (STE) metric, a measure that combines the per-possession value added or subtracted by a team's field goal, punt, kickoff, punt return and kickoff return units. On average, Notre Dame has lost 0.4 points per possession due to spe- cial teams over the course of the sea- son. That equates to about a single point of scoreboard value per game. If that rating holds steady, it would tie the 2012 season as the worst STE performance by the Irish since Brian Kelly arrived. That last point should be under- scored. The best season in the Kelly era coincided with the worst overall special teams efficiency performance of the same era. Obviously, special teams issues didn't contribute directly to losses that season when Notre Dame rolled to an undefeated regular season re- cord and berth in the BCS National Championship Game. Special teams problems were overcome. Notre Dame defeated Purdue, BYU and Pittsburgh that season by three points each. Had special teams gaffes been neutral in each game, those vic- tories would have come by at least six points each. Another point to underscore is that special teams plays, positive and negative ones, are often grouped together in metrics like STE and in post-game evaluations, but the val- ues are generated independently. The Irish have above-average rankings in field goal efficiency, kickoff return efficiency and kickoff efficiency this year. The punt return setbacks and the punt block game-changer against North Carolina State contribute to terrible marks in those two categories — the Irish rank 122nd nationally in punt return efficiency and 123rd na- tionally in punt efficiency. The teams that generate the most value on punting do so by recovering opponent punt return fumbles — Miami ranks seventh nationally following the victory over Notre Dame. In fact, the best teams in the nation in generating special teams value all have weak spots somewhere in special teams. Michigan has generated the most value this year on special teams but has been well below average in field goal efficiency (8 of 14 through Oct. 29), and is merely average in both kick returns and punt efficiency. We tend to think of elite spe- cial teams play as belonging to teams that aggressively pro- duce scoring opportunities on punt blocks and dynamic punt and kickoff returns. But the best special teams units traditionally don't make costly errors and take advantage of errors by their opponent. The special teams mistakes that have plagued the Irish this year have been devastating, but the dif- ference between those instances and consistently good special teams play isn't a massive gap. Had the Irish simply fair caught each of the three punt returns that were coughed up against Michigan State and Miami, Notre Dame's punt return efficiency would leap from 122nd overall to fifth nationally. Three plays make the difference between one of the nation's best punt return units and one of the worst. It's difficult to attribute special teams concerns to a systemic issue due to those three plays, and yet they must be corrected in order for Notre Dame to play more efficiently overall. ✦ IRISH ANALYTICS BRIAN FREMEAU Brian Fremeau of ESPN/Football Outsiders has been a statistical analyst at Blue & Gold Illustrated since January 2015. He can be reached at bcfremeau@gmail.com. The Cost Of Poor Special Teams Play Sophomore C.J. Sanders has been a dynamic punt returner (12.5 yards per attempt), but his inability to at least fair catch one kick versus Michigan State Sept. 17 and two versus Miami Oct. 29 cost the Irish dearly and led to turnovers. PHOTO BY BILL PANZICA