Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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jective endeavor over the past decade, if not longer. Twenty, 40, 60 years ago, it was rela- D efining what constitutes a suc- cessful football season at Notre Dame has become a more sub- tively clear. A "great" season was either a con- sensus national title or something close to it (1993, 1989, 1970, 1964 …). A "good" season was a top-10 fin- ish, preferably featuring a major bowl victory, or an epic conquest in the days before the Irish accepted bowl bids (i.e., finishing No. 10 in 1957, highlighted by snapping Oklahoma's NCAA record 47-game winning streak). Thus, although the Irish were "only" 9-3 in 1978, they finished No. 7 in the Associated Press poll while playing the nation's No. 1 schedule, and closed with a dramatic 35-34 Cot- ton Bowl victory versus Houston. Finally, any campaign with more than three losses was a disappoint- ment, and sometimes even two or three defeats during halcyon eras re- ceived a similar classification. After a program-record 18 straight What Will Be A "Good" Season In 2012? THE FIFTH QUARTER LOU SOMOGYI 3. A 4-0 Record Heading Into October — And Avoiding 0-4 Against Michigan and Stanford Do you realize Notre Dame hasn't even started 3-0 since 2002, Ty Will- ingham's debut season when Sports Illustrated anointed him "Savior of South Bend"? The top buzz kill to any season is expecting to come out strong against beatable teams, but then lay- ing an egg, with the opener against USF last season a prime example. We know it's a different year, but Head coach Brian Kelly has a tough road to tran- spire in 2012, but there are plenty of bench- marks to reach this fall that would show a program pointed in the right direction. Navy, Purdue and Michigan State were toppled by 42, 28 and 18 points last year, respectively, by the Irish. It's not like it's undoable. Equally significant is not allowing PHOTO BY JOE RAYMOND years of at least three losses — with 11 of them five defeats or more, in- cluding each of the last five — the bell curve has been altered to more nebulous aspirations. "I just want them to be competitive and consistent from week to week, with no blowouts suffered." "If they can do well enough to get to a bowl, then you can still sell the top re- cruits that the 'arrow is pointing up.' " "I want to see enough to believe that least five games in their third season, from Hunk Anderson in 1933 to Char- lie Weis in 2007, were ousted after their third, fourth or fifth seasons. The last thing anyone wants is to enter 2013 with Kelly on the dreaded "Hot Seat" list in preseason analyses. 2. Come Out Ahead On Turnovers At The End Of The Year The minus-15 disparity last season next year they will be really good (what- ever defines "really good")." Many an opinion holds that Notre Dame currently is "a year away" from reaching maybe another prosper- ous era. If that is so, then what steps would you like to see occur this year to set the table? Here are a few that come to mind: 1. Avoid A Five-Loss Campaign In Brian Kelly's Third Year Yes, it might sound extremely un- avoid is the bogies. Nothing creates more skepticism or cynicism in this program, at least on the outside, than a coach with three straight sub-par campaigns. We see 9-4 as the base to potentially avoid a school-record-ty- ing sixth straight season of finishing outside the top 25. All seven Irish coaches who lost at a Notre Dame senior class for the first time ever to go 0-4 versus Michigan and 0-4 versus Stanford, especially with both games at home. A defeat in either contest would help cast doubt again about the program's progress. 4. Hold Serve At Home Each of the five former coaches who have a statue along the perimeter of Notre Dame Stadium achieved an unbeaten home season at least once through their first three years. Achieving this in itself for the first time since 1998 would inspire me to define 2012 as a positive campaign. 5. Do The Unexpected While looking up something else, (29 by Notre Dame, a record-low 14 by the opposition) was the second worst in the archives we've checked, dating back to 1951. It's behind only the minus-16 during head coach Joe Kuharich's 2-8 campaign in 1960. Turning around this stat alone ambitious, but that's what nearly two decades of inconsistency have done. To use a golf analogy, Notre Dame shooting par this year would be about 9-4 (including the bowl). What it must 98 PRESEASON 2012 won't guarantee a "good" season. Weis' 6-6 Irish in 2009 had merely 14 turnovers (only four interceptions tossed by Jimmy Clausen) while the opposition had 19. It's not so much the "how many" but the "when." Still, after 25- and 29-turnover cam- paigns in Kelly's first two seasons, keeping it to less than 20 is a reason- able goal, as is forcing at least 25 (or about two per game), which they did in 2010. I discovered an amazing statistic: Excluding bowl games, which are played at neutral sites, Notre Dame has not defeated a higher-ranked, top- 10 team in a night game on the oppo- nent's home turf since Oct. 8, 1983, a 30-6 victory at No. 7 South Carolina. There might be three such opportu- nities this year versus Michigan State, Oklahoma and USC. The Irish have lost a school-record nine straight to top-10 teams, dating back to 2005. Achieving a little more, or a lot more, than expected used to be the hallmark of this program. Getting that back again would help define a suc- cessful campaign. ✦ Senior Editor Lou Somogyi has been at Blue & Gold Illustrated since July 1985. He can be reached at lsomogyi@blueandgold.com BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED