Blue White Illustrated

May 2022

Penn State Sports Magazine

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6 6 M A Y 2 0 2 2 W W W . B L U E W H I T E O N L I N E . C O M T here is no longer a debate about whether recruiting stars matter. They do. And that's good news for Penn State. A new feature at On3.com is the Draft by Stars database. It makes the case in a crystal-clear fashion that five-star prospects are more likely to succeed in col- lege before landing in the pros as high picks than four-star pros- pects, three-star prospects and so on down the list. "For instance, 23 former five-stars were picked in the 2021 NFL Draft," explains Charles Power, On3's direc- tor of scouting and rankings. "The On3 data shows the five-stars accounted for 8.9 percent of all picks in the draft, despite representing just 0.7 percent of all prospects. "The five-stars were drafted at a 71.9 percent rate — several times higher than that of four-stars, three-stars and two-stars/unranked prospects. The On3 Draft by Stars data also indicates the five-stars in the 2021 NFL Draft were 29.7 times more likely to be drafted than two-stars and unrated prospects." Those numbers back up the blue-chip ratio theory pioneered by national col- lege football writer Bud Elliot. Boiled down to its simplest form, Elliot's theory states that the only teams that can win the national title in any given year are those that have more five- and four-star players on their roster than three-star-or-lower players. Here's why this is all relevant to Penn State: While the Nittany Lions have the look of a rebuilding team, an influx of young standouts is about to change the composition of the roster in a way that alters the blue-chip ratio in a positive direction. Head coach James Franklin is usually coy when it comes to first-year players. He doesn't want to start the hype train rolling down the tracks at a speed that will cause a freshman to possibly jump the rails and develop more slowly than he otherwise might. However, Penn State's latest recruiting class, which finished seventh in the On3 Consensus Team Rankings, featured more five- and four-star players (15) than three-star players (10). Newcomers in both groups are capable of making an instant im- pact. But those who fall into the first group have a better chance of doing so, and three are already making the case to play right away. The list starts in the running backs room. Returnees Keyvone Lee, Caziah Holmes and Devyn Ford are going to be pushed hard for carries by five-star running back Nick Singleton and his four-star classmate Kaytron Allen. Both freshmen enrolled early and to hear Franklin tell it are already turning heads. "What's impressive to me is that they came out of high school and physically, they're at a stage where they can do all things," offensive coordinator Mike Yur- cich said. "You don't have to worry about what down it is with those guys. They can play on all downs because of their physical strength and their maturity. "We just have to get them squared away mentally, from a protection stand- point, assignment standpoint, and those sorts of things. But they're doing a helluva job, and they're just going to raise … the competi- tive level in that room." Singleton, in particular, is making his presence known after arriving as the Gatorade National High School Player of the Year. He told reporters at a Maxwell Club awards banquet in March that his new teammates jok- ingly call him "Gatorade." But his chances of quickly ascending the depth chart are no joke. "I'm impressed with a lot of these freshmen," senior line- backer Jonathan Sutherland said. "They came here in January, and they were working all through winter workouts. I would say the one guy [who has made a big impression] is probably Nick Singleton. He's had a couple of standout plays. He's a good player." The other name to know right now is Zane Durant. Listed at 6-foot-1, 265 pounds, he's smaller than some of his fellow defensive tackles but is not lack- ing in physicality. "Zane Durant is flashing at a posi- tion that's usually hard to flash at as a freshman," Franklin said. "He's just strong and explosive. He's got great lateral movement. "If he keeps trending the way he is right now, I think he's going to have the chance to compete for playing time as a true freshman at D-tackle, which is unusual." Other former high school standouts are also about to burst onto the scene. Redshirt freshman Zakee Wheatley, a four-star defensive back in the Lions' 2021 class, is moving up the depth chart at safety. So, too, is sophomore Parker Washington, who was a four- star player and is set to become the team's top receiver. We could list nu- merous others in this space, too. All told, though, the takeaway is this: Stars matter. Penn State football is about to show why in a big way this fall. ■ O P I N I O N GREG PICKEL gpic92@gmail.com Nittany Lions Hoping Their Stars Align This Fall THE LAST WORD Freshman defensive tackle Zane Durant has been turning heads since arriving at Penn State in January. PHOTO BY GREG PICKEL

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