The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports
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THE WOLVERINE 2023 FOOTBALL PREVIEW ■ 159 A s the winningest program in the sport, Michigan is a historic col- lege football power that welcomes the high expectations and lofty goals that come with such recognition. The Wolverines expect to win the Big Ten championship each season —they lead the conference with 44. They desire to contend for national titles each year — and have captured the second-most since 1900 with 11. They believe they'll be at or near the pinnacle of the mountaintop each fall. Michigan, and nearly all others in the college football landscape, expect that U-M will be there again in 2023. The Wol- verines should be no lower than fourth in the preseason Associated Press poll and probably will be No. 2 or No. 3. Undoubtedly, Georgia will be at the top of the list as the reigning two-time national champion. The only other two programs that may be placed ahead of Michigan are Alabama and Ohio State. However, the Crimson Tide failed to make the College Football Playoff last season, and the Buck- eyes have lost two straight to the Wolver- ines by at least 15 points. Maybe one of them slips past Michigan, but it would be surprising if both did. However, just because most predict that Michigan will be a top-five team and one of the top contenders this upcoming season does not guarantee that it will have such success. Even though the Wolverines see them- selves as the leaders and best, they have actually struggled to live up to expectations as preseason national title contenders the past half century or so. In the last 46 seasons, Michigan has been ranked in the top five of the preseason AP poll 11 times. Each of those times, Michi- gan failed to finish at least fifth (1977, 1981, 1986, 1989, 1991, 1993, 1994, 1998, 2003, 2005 and 2007). Although they just missed the top five in the final AP poll some of those years (sixth in 1991 and 2003, and seventh in 1989), the Wolverines were not close most years (outside the top 10 six times), and some were disastrous (2005 and 2007). The last time that Michigan began and ended a season in the top five of the AP poll was 1976. In fact, it is the only time that Michigan has done it since the AP debuted a preseason poll in 1950. But if there is any year for the Wolverines to buck this trend, to show that they can win big when the biggest lights are on them for the entire year, it's this year. This is their best chance to do it. The Wolverines will have one of the most talented teams in the country this season. ESPN's SP+, a tempo- and opponent- adjusted measure of college football effi- ciency developed by Bill Connelly, projects that the Wolverines will be third (29.2), just 0.7 points behind leader Georgia and nearly a touchdown ahead of No. 8 Penn State (23.5). SP+ projects Michigan to be so high because, in part, U-M is seventh in Connelly's returning production rankings, bringing back 15 of 22 starters and several other significant contributors from last year's College Football Playoff roster. Those returners are stocked with star power in quarterback J.J. McCarthy, run- ning backs Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards and cornerback Will Johnson — and offensive guard Zak Zinter, tight end Colston Loveland and safety Rod Moore are right behind them. U-M also added key transfers to shore up potential weak spots in defensive end Josa- iah Stewart and cornerback Josh Wallace. Michigan also benefits from having what should be one of the smoother schedules in the nation. With no menacing nonconfer- ence foe and a weaker bottom half of the Big Ten, Michigan should be a double-digit favorite in each of its first nine contests. The Wolverines will have two months to find their rhythm before they are chal- lenged by Penn State and Ohio State. Even in those two clashes, the Wolverines should be favored in both. Michigan avoided being tossed into a "White Out" in Happy Valley, and U-M gets to host the Buckeyes at the Big House. Consequently, with a loaded depth chart and favorable schedule, Michigan is the na- tional contender with the fewest question marks. Georgia, Ohio State, Alabama and Penn State all must break in a new quarter- back. Michigan doesn't. LSU and Florida State should have at least two non-home contests against top-15 teams, including a head-to-head matchup in the season opener. Michigan doesn't. USC may have a defense that can- not get stops without turnover luck. Michi- gan doesn't. The Wolverines seem to have every piece of the puzzle this year. This is why they are going to begin and end the season in the top five of the AP poll, win a third straight Big Ten title, return to the College Football Playoff and raise the trophy on the podium after the last game of the year. ❏ INSIDE THE NUMBERS DREW HALLETT Living Up To National Title Expectations Staff writer Drew Hallett has covered Michigan athletics since 2013. Contact him at drew.c.hallett@gmail.com and follow him on Twitter @DrewCHallett. Michigan aims to make a third straight College Football Playoff appearance, with the ultimate goal of capturing the national championship in Houston's NRG Stadium on Jan. 8, 2024. PHOTO COURTESY SIDEARM SPORTS