Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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BLUEGOLDONLINE.COM SEPT. 30, 2023 39 GAME PREVIEW: DUKE a talented Tigers secondary, but he averaged only 5.15 yards per attempt. While Duke's passing game is not bad, it's not good enough to be the reason the Blue Devils win against an elite pass defense. And that's what Notre Dame has. Advantage: Notre Dame NOTRE DAME RUNNING GAME VS. DUKE RUN DEFENSE Just ahead of Duke in Sports Info Solutions' points earned per run play stat is Notre Dame, which entered Week 4 at 0.215. That was good for eighth in the FBS. Junior running back Audric Estimé entered the Ohio State game leading the country in PFF rushing grade at 92.2, No. 3 in the nation in yards per carry with 8.27 and leading the country in rushing yards with 521. By any possible measure, including just watching him play, Estimé has been the best running back in college football so far in 2023, and if the season ended today, he would win the Doak Walker Award. His offensive line looks better and better in the run game as the weeks have gone on, too. Meanwhile, Duke is 93rd in college football (in- cluding FCS teams) at 0.364 points saved per play against the run. The Clemson game didn't help, because Tigers running backs Will Shipley and Phil Mafah combined for 6.39 yards per carry that night on 28 attempts. The Blue Devils held firm against Lafayette and Northwestern, but Notre Dame might feature an even better running game than Clemson. Duke, like most teams in college football, plays mostly nickel. Redshirt sophomore Tre Freeman and senior Dorian Mausi are its primary lineback- ers. Mausi has generally rated pretty well, but Freeman's missed tackle rate against the run is a very high 33.3 percent, which is tied for 18th in the country among linebackers (incidentally, one of the players he's tied with is Notre Dame sophomore Jaylen Sneed). Redshirt senior defensive tackle DeWayne Carter can be a force in the middle, but he won't be enough. Advantage: Notre Dame NOTRE DAME PASSING GAME VS. DUKE PASS DEFENSE Duke's pass defense was terrific in its first three games under new defensive coordinator Tyler San- tucci, placing second behind only Memphis in op- ponent yards per attempt with 4.54. The catalyst for that is seventh-year — yes, seventh — graduate student cornerback Myles Jones. Jones would have finished his college career in 2020 if not for the COVID-19 pandemic, but two medical redshirts later, Duke is glad he didn't. Jones has allowed only 6 receptions for 59 yards on 13 targets so far this season, along with 2 passes broken up and 2 interceptions. Led by Jones at cornerback and several other highly graded de- fensive backs, Duke limited Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik to 209 yards on 43 attempts, which works out to 4.86 yards per attempt. Lafayette and Northwestern didn't fare much better. The one reason for doubt is that Duke hasn't faced an elite passing game and was the fourth- worst ACC team in opponent yards per attempt last year, but then again, neither did Notre Dame's passing defense until Week 4 against Ohio State. Given the new additions, the Blue Devils' pass defense looks like it's here to stay. Graduate student defensive tackle Ja'Mion Franklin spent three seasons at Notre Dame (2018-20) before transferring to Duke. Last year, he recorded 26 total stops, 3.5 tackles for loss and 3 sacks. PHOTO COURTESY DUKE ATHLETICS Staff Predictions Todd D. Burlage: Notre Dame 34, Duke 28 Following its season-opening 28-7 upset win over No. 9 Clemson, Duke moved from a program with moderate season expecta- tions to a strong candidate to vie for the ACC championship. A balanced team that averaged 36.0 points through its first three games and allowed only 9.3 points per outing, this might be considered Notre Dame's toughest true road test on the schedule this season. But the Irish find a way to get it done in a good battle. Steve Downey: Notre Dame 27, Duke 23 The Blue Devils put the ACC on notice when they trounced then-No. 9 Clemson 28-7 Sept. 4 — their first win versus an Associated Press top-10 team since Steve Spurrier was in charge in 1989. Win or lose versus Ohio State, Notre Dame will have to work hard to avoid a letdown in what will be a much bigger game for Duke. Keep an eye on the turnover battle. Since Mike Elko arrived in Durham, the Devils are 9-2 in games in which they held the advantage in that category. This game may prove to be one of the Notre Dame's tougher road tests of the season, but the Irish offense has been per- forming at an unprecedented level with Sam Hartman — who did not throw an interception in the first four games — running the show. Kyle Kelly: Notre Dame 34, Duke 31 In the Blue & Gold Illustrated 2023 Foot- ball Preview, I circled Duke as a potential trap game for the Fighting Irish. And after a hard- fought game with Ohio State, I absolutely still see that being the case. This one will be much closer than Notre Dame fans prefer. However, I like the Irish to escape Durham with a victory. Tyler Horka: Notre Dame 35, Duke 17 This is one of the biggest games in Duke history. The moment is going to be too much for the Blue Devils. Riley Leonard is a good quarterback, but Duke doesn't have enough firepower around him in the passing game to keep up with a Notre Dame offense that can hurt you through the air with Sam Hartman and on the ground with Audric Estimé. Everything about this matchup screams "trap game" for the Fighting Irish, but they won't fall into it. Jack Soble: Notre Dame 34, Duke 27 Duke is a good football team. The Blue Devils run the ball at an extremely high level and their defense looks much improved. And the Notre Dame defense showed against Cen- tral Michigan (and to some extent Tennessee State) that it can start slowly from time to time. A potential Ohio State hangover exacer- bates that possibility. But … Notre Dame has a much more efficient passing game, and that's tough to overcome.