The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports
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16 ■ THE WOLVERINE 2024 FOOTBALL PREVIEW MICHIGAN FOOTBALL College football is about the X's and O's, sure, but more than that, it's about the Jimmys and Joes, with talent acquisition and development at the fore- front of the sport. There's been a shift in recent years, due to the rise of the transfer portal, but recruiting from the high school ranks remains incredibly important. Michigan winning the 2023 national championship was actually a bit of an outlier. In the five recruiting cycles leading up to the season, U-M had a 56.3 percent blue-chip ratio (percentage of recruits that were rated four- or five- stars) — the lowest of any champion in College Football Playoff history since 2014. The ratio of every other title win- ner in that period was 60-plus percent, with five of the 10 champs coming in at 78 percent or higher. All things considered, and in compari- son to most of its peers, U-M recruits at an extremely high level, with an elite operation that reels in prospects from across America (and even the world). The Wolverines have averaged having their class ranked No. 13.4 in the nation over the last five cycles (2020-24), per the On3 Industry Ranking, which is the third-highest mark in the Big Ten behind Ohio State (3.8) and Oregon (7.8). While it's not the direct reason, that lines up exactly with how the three teams are viewed heading into the 2024 season, with both Athlon Sports and Lindy's pegging Ohio State as the con- ference favorite, Oregon as the second- best team and the Maize and Blue third in their preseason magazines. Penn State checks in fourth according to both publications and in recent recruiting rankings, just behind U-M with an aver- age class rank of 13.8. Ohio State is one of the sport's top recruiting powers. It has been for de- cades, and that's not likely to change any time soon. The last time the Buck- eyes finished worse than top-five in the nation was 2019 (15th), with a class that was brought in during the head coaching transition from Urban Meyer to Ryan Day. Taking that one out, it's been since 2015, and even then they had the No. 7-rated haul in the land. The Big Ten adding four new members from the now-defunct Pac-12 — Ore- gon, UCLA, USC and Washington — will change the dynamic for the conference on the recruiting trail. Oregon has es- tablished itself as one of the best at ac- quiring top recruits, but USC also has a high upside, hailing from a talent-rich area in Southern California and touting a national brand. Despite averaging a class ranked No. 26.2 over the last five years, the Trojans have tallied 16 top- 10 recruiting hauls since 2004 — more than Michigan (nine) and just as many as Ohio State. Nebraska (26.8) and Wisconsin (29) are the other two Big Ten programs that have averaged top-30 finishes on the trail over the last five seasons. There's a bit of a drop-off following Iowa (30.2), with the 10 other teams in the confer- ence averaging classes worse than 35th. — Clayton Sayfie Big Ten Recruiting Rankings Breakdown Big Ten Recruiting — Five-Year Snapshot Avg. Class Rank Best Class Class Rank Team (2020-24) (2020-24) (2024) Ohio State 3.8 2021 (2nd) 4th Oregon 7.8 2024 (3rd) 3rd Michigan 13.4 2022 (9th) 15th Penn State 13.8 2022 (7th) 16th USC 26.2 2023, '21 (9th) 18th Nebraska 26.8 2020 (20th) 24th Wisconsin 29 2021 (16th) 22nd Iowa 30.2 2021 (20th) 29th Michigan State 36.6 2023 (23rd) 43rd Maryland 39 2021 (25th) 44tg Minnesota 39.8 2021 (31st) 34th UCLA 39.8 2021 (30th) 69th Washington 41.8 2020 (15th) 49th Purdue 47.2 2024 (30th) 30th Rutgers 48.6 2021 (38th) 40th Northwestern 50 2020 (39th) 74th Indiana 50.8 2022 (29th) 63rd Illinois 55 2023 (40th) 46th Data Source: On3 Industry Ranking The expanded Big Ten will change the conference dynamic on the recruiting trail. For years, Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State have finished atop conference recruiting rankings, but based on the last five years' results, newcomer Oregon will challenge for the top of the table, and USC is also moving up quickly. PHOTO BY PER KJELDSEN