Blue & Gold Illustrated: America's Foremost Authority on Notre Dame Football
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62 PRESEASON 2024 BLUE & GOLD ILLUSTRATED D efining what constitutes a suc- cessful football season at Notre Dame has become a more subjec- tive endeavor over the past decade, if not longer. Twenty, 40, 60 years ago, it was rela- tively clear. A "great" season was either a consen- sus national title or something close to it (1993, 1989, 1970, 1964 …). A "good" season was a top-10 finish, preferably featuring a major bowl victory, or an epic conquest in the days before the Irish accepted bowl bids (i.e., finishing No. 10 in 1957, highlighted by snapping Oklahoma's NCAA-record 47-game winning streak). Thus, although the Irish were "only" 9-3 in 1978, they finished No. 7 in the Associated Press poll while playing the nation's No. 1 schedule, and closed with a dramatic 35-34 Cotton Bowl victory versus Houston. Finally, any campaign with more than three losses was a disappointment, and sometimes even two or three defeats during halcyon eras received a similar classification. After a program-record 18 straight years of at least three losses — with 11 of them five defeats or more, including each of the last five — the bell curve has been altered to more nebulous aspirations. "I just want them to be competitive and consistent from week to week, with no blowouts suffered." "If they can do well enough to get to a bowl, then you can still sell the top re- cruits that the 'arrow is pointing up.'" "I want to see enough to believe that next year they will be really good (what- ever defines ' really good')." Many an opinion holds that Notre Dame currently is "a year away" from reaching maybe another prosperous era. If that is so, then what steps would you like to see occur this year to set the table? Here are a few that come to mind: 1. Avoid A Five-Loss Campaign In Brian Kelly's Third Year Yes, it might sound extremely un- ambitious, but that's what nearly two decades of inconsistency have done. To use a golf analogy, Notre Dame shooting par this year would be about 9-4 (in- cluding the bowl). What it must avoid is the bogies. Nothing creates more skep- ticism or cynicism in this program, at least on the outside, than a coach with three straight subpar campaigns. We see 9-4 as the base to potentially avoid a school-record-tying sixth straight sea- son of finishing outside the top 25. All seven Irish coaches who lost at least five games in their third season, from Hunk Anderson in 1933 to Charlie Weis in 2007, were ousted after their third, fourth or fifth seasons. The last thing anyone wants is to enter 2013 with Kelly on the dreaded "Hot Seat" list in preseason analyses. 2. Come Out Ahead On Turnovers At The End Of The Year The minus-15 disparity last season (29 by Notre Dame, a record-low 14 by the opposition) was the second worst in the archives we've checked, dating back to 1951. It's behind only the minus-16 during head coach Joe Kuharich's 2-8 campaign in 1960. Turning around this stat alone won't guarantee a "good" season. Weis' 6-6 Irish in 2009 had merely 14 turnovers (only 4 interceptions tossed by Jimmy Clausen) while the opposition had 19. It's not so much the "how many" but the "when." Still, after 25- and 29-turnover cam- paigns in Kelly's first two seasons, keep- ing it to less than 20 is a reasonable goal, as is forcing at least 25 (or about two per game), which they did in 2010. 3. A 4-0 Record Heading Into Oc- tober — And Avoiding 0-4 Against Michigan and Stanford Do you realize Notre Dame hasn't even started 3-0 since 2002, Ty Willingham's debut season when Sports Illustrated anointed him "Savior of South Bend"? The top buzzkill to any season is expecting to come out strong against beatable teams, but then laying an egg, with the opener against USF last season a prime example. We know it's a different year, but Navy, Purdue and Michigan State were toppled by 42, 28 and 18 points last year, respectively, by the Irish. It's not like it's undoable. Equally significant is not allowing a Notre Dame senior class for the first time ever to go 0-4 versus Michigan and 0-4 versus Stanford, especially with both games at ho2me. A defeat in either game would help cast doubt again about the program's progress. 4. Hold Serve At Home Each of the five former coaches who have a statue along the perimeter of Notre Dame Stadium achieved this at least once through their first three years. Achieving this in itself for the first time since 1998 would inspire me to de- fine 2012 as a positive campaign. 5. Do The Unexpected While looking up something else, I discovered an amazing statistic: Ex- cluding bowl games, which are played at neutral sites, Notre Dame has not de- feated a higher-ranked, top-25 team in a night game on the opponent's home turf since Oct. 8, 1983, a 30-6 victory at No. 7 South Carolina. There might be three such opportunities this year, versus Michigan State, Oklahoma and USC. The Irish have lost a school-re- cord nine straight to top-10 teams. Achieving a little more than expected used to be the hallmark of this program. Getting that back again would help de- fine a successful campaign. ✦ BEST OF THE FIFTH QUARTER ✦ LOU SOMOGYI ✦ PRESEASON 2012 What Will Be A 'Good' Season In 2012? EDITOR'S NOTE: The late, great Lou Somogyi possessed an unmatched knowledge of Notre Dame football, and it was his mission in life to share it with others. Those of us at Blue & Gold Illustrated would like to continue to provide his wis- dom and unique perspective from his more than 37 years covering the Fighting Irish for this publication. Heading into the 2012 season, head coach Brian Kelly and the Fighting Irish were simply aiming to avoid the program's 12th five-loss season in 19 years. Notre Dame proceeded to go 12-0 in the regular season before losing to Alabama in the BCS National Championship Game. PHOTO BY JOE RAYMOND