The Wolverine: Covering University of Michigan Football and Sports
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OCTOBER 2024 ❱ THE WOLVERINE 65 P lay action was supposed to be one of the key answers to the many questions revolving around Michi- gan's offense this season. The Wolverines lost 10 offensive starters and did not know who would succeed top-10 NFL Draft pick J.J. McCarthy at quarterback. The Wolverines, though, did return a potent pair in Donovan Edwards and Kalel Mullings at running back. Behind them and new head coach Sherrone Moore's smash-mouth style and identity, the feel- ing was that Michigan would run the ball often and then catch defenses cheating down with play action over the top. Instead, Michigan's execution on play action has been a major problem rather than an answer. Through the first three contests of 2024, Michigan's passing attack with quarter- back Davis Warren has not been able to lift off and has had no vertical threat. The Maize and Blue rank 118th out of 134 FBS schools in passing yards per attempt (5.9). The Wolverines are also tied for 108th in 10-plus yard passes (18), 98th in 20-plus yard passes (6), tied for 103rd in 30-plus yard passes (2) and are one of only 15 teams not to record a single throw gaining at least 40 yards. Warren is not looking deep, ei- ther — only 27.8 percent of his tosses have traveled 10-plus air yards. For reference, although Michigan did not have many 30-plus yard completions with McCarthy last year, U-M still tied for 24th in 10-plus yard passes and tied for 29th in 20-plus yard throws. McCarthy was very talented at maneuvering in the pocket and finding his receivers in the in- termediate level to keep the chains mov- ing, and 40.2 percent of his throws went 10-plus air yards. As a result, Michigan ranked 15th in passing yards per attempt (8.9), not a lowly 118th. The difference between McCarthy and Warren is not as vast as many may think, though. For McCarthy, Pro Football Fo- cus (PFF) assigned him an offensive grade of 90.4 when kept clean, 89.6 when not blitzed and 89.2 when not running play action. Warren's grades are not signifi- cantly off that mark. PFF handed him an offensive grade of 78.2 when kept clean, 85.2 when not blitzed and 85.9 when not using play action. Warren has not been as sharp, but his throws there have been sufficient. Where it falls off a cliff, however, is when Michigan goes into play action and Warren feels pressure. McCarthy's of- fensive PFF grades were 75.8 when un- der pressure, 80.3 when blitzed and 86.3 on play action. Warren's grades are 63.5 when under pressure, 49.0 when blitzed and 38.7 on play action. Unlike McCarthy, Warren does not have the faith in himself or his teammates to let a play develop, step into a pass rush and make a play downfield. On play ac- tion, McCarthy averaged 11.4 yards per attempt, a depth of target of 11.4 yards and 3.21 seconds before throwing. On the other hand, Warren has averaged 5.6 yards per attempt, a depth of target of 8.2 yards and 2.54 seconds before throwing. A dif- ference of 0.67 seconds is an eternity in the middle of the pocket. Warren also tends to throw off his back foot when pressure is breathing down on him. This has led to him throwing 6 inter- ceptions on 72 attempts — an interception rate of 8.3 percent. McCarthy's intercep- tion rate last year was 1.2 percent (4 inter- ceptions on 333 throws). The fault for Michigan's measly play- action execution thus far does not fall solely on Warren's shoulders. His wide- outs are green and have not been able to get much separation on their routes. His offensive line has five new starters that are still learning to play together, and right tackle Evan Link has really struggled to stymie edge rushers (13 pressures allowed on 88 non-spike drop backs). Even Mc- Carthy would find it difficult to make vertical plays under those circumstances. However, Michigan cannot continue with the McCarthy-lite offense if play ac- tion is not working, Warren does not trust to go vertical, and he keeps turning over the football, a major concern especially against stronger defenses. Defenses will creep down and force Ed- wards and Mullings to ram into stacked boxes. Michigan needs to even the num- bers and force defenses to account for a running quarterback like Orji, who has the size and strength to take hits and not get too worn down. Clearly, Moore has reservations about Orji's ability to throw, but his legs may open up space in the in- termediate and deep levels for U-M to hit on some play action. It is unclear if Michigan can install this efficiently enough in the middle of game weeks, particularly with an important home showdown against No. 11 USC on tap. But unless Warren changes course and begins to stand strong and look downfield, it may be the only way for the Wolverines to turn their play-action problem into a weapon. ❑ INSIDE THE NUMBERS ❱ DREW HALLETT Michigan's Play-Action Problem Senior Davis Warren had 6 interceptions in his first 72 pass attempts — an interception rate of 8.3 percent, prompting a change to Alex Orji as the starting quarterback in Week 4 against USC. PHOTO BY LON HORWEDEL Staff writer Drew Hallett has covered Michigan athletics since 2013. Contact him at drew.c.hallett@gmail.com and follow him on X (Twitter) @DrewCHallett.